Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T13:47:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D2 0xd252…4058 other 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$4 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%8W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day11.0pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$388now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% −$108
other 43% +$107
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-24.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -16.6% -24.5% 53% 53% -9.4%
≤30d 15 -16.6% -24.5% 53% 53% -9.4%
≤90d 15 -16.6% -24.5% 53% 53% -9.4%
all 15 -16.6% -24.5% 53% 53% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.5% 53% -9.4%
10% -31.7% 53% -18.0%
15% -38.3% 47% -26.0%
20% -44.4% 20% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 32% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -59% → late +20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$27 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$388
Realized+$4
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses8 / 7
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions5
Markets (closed)15 / 20
History coverage4d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day11.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Brazil 74¢ 74¢ $136 $135 −$1 (-1%)
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals No 62¢ 62¢ $87 $87 +$0 (+0%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany O/U 2.5 Under 62¢ 62¢ $79 $79 +$0 (+0%)
Brian Brobbey: 1+ goals No 77¢ 76¢ $44 $44 −$0 (-0%)
Netherlands to score first vs. Morocco? No 47¢ 46¢ $43 $42 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance Jun 28 $95 +$31 +32%
Jonathan David: 1+ goals Jun 28 $56 +$28 +50%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 28 $44 +$27 +62%
Croatia to score first vs. Ghana? Jun 27 $51 −$50 -98%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 27 $20 −$20 -98%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 27 $62 +$30 +48%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 26 $22 +$13 +62%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 26 $28 +$30 +107%
Senegal vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $31 −$30 -98%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Belgium O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $25 −$25 -98%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $36 +$15 +42%
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Jun 25 $31 +$15 +48%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $24 −$23 -98%
United States to score first vs. Türkiye? Jun 25 $24 −$24 -98%
Brian Brobbey: 1+ goals Jun 25 $16 −$16 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brian Brobbey: 1+ goals BUY No 77¢ $5 1h
Brian Brobbey: 1+ goals BUY No 77¢ $16 1h
Brian Brobbey: 1+ goals BUY No 77¢ $17 1h
Brian Brobbey: 1+ goals BUY No 76¢ $5 1h
Netherlands to score first vs. Morocco? BUY No 47¢ $15 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany O/U 2.5 BUY Under 63¢ $27 1h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals BUY No 63¢ $30 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Brazil 74¢ $46 1h
Netherlands to score first vs. Morocco? BUY No 47¢ $14 6h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany O/U 2.5 BUY Under 63¢ $27 6h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals BUY No 62¢ $29 6h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Brazil 74¢ $45 6h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany O/U 2.5 BUY Under 61¢ $10 9h
Netherlands to score first vs. Morocco? BUY No 47¢ $14 10h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany O/U 2.5 BUY Under 61¢ $6 10h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany O/U 2.5 BUY Under 61¢ $9 10h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals BUY No 62¢ $30 10h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Brazil 74¢ $46 11h
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance BUY Canada 75¢ $95 22h
Jonathan David: 1+ goals BUY No 65¢ $27 23h
Jonathan David: 1+ goals BUY No 67¢ $28 28h
Croatia to score first vs. Ghana? BUY No 44¢ $13 46h
Croatia to score first vs. Ghana? BUY No 44¢ $26 2d
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY No 41¢ $10 2d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY No 61¢ $22 2d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY No 61¢ $22 2d
Croatia to score first vs. Ghana? BUY No 44¢ $13 2d
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY No 42¢ $10 2d
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY No 61¢ $22 3d
Senegal vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 0.5 BUY Over 50¢ $16 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $387.93 · official $387.93 (match) · 53 history records