Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T11:39:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D2
0xd25b…9f3d
weather · 633 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$8,582 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$5,503 · open +$2,385
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$109,936
Realized+$5,503
Unrealized+$2,385
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses602 / 0
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions38
Markets (closed)602 / 633
Avg bet$681
Trades / day622.6
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit89%
Chart Positions 38 History 602 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$346
7 days+$5,503
14 days+$5,503
30 days+$5,503
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027? No 82¢ 86¢ $24,045 $25,365 +$1,321 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $12,221 $12,237 +$15 (+0%)
Will Russia enter Sumy by June 30? No 94¢ 99¢ $10,303 $10,854 +$551 (+5%)
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $6,966 $6,998 +$32 (+0%)
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $6,177 $6,299 +$122 (+2%)
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $5,025 $5,118 +$93 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $4,991 $4,998 +$6 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $4,229 $4,233 +$5 (+0%)
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by June 30? No 96¢ 97¢ $3,994 $4,063 +$69 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $3,994 $3,998 +$4 (+0%)
Will Russia enter Kharkiv by June 30? No 95¢ 99¢ $2,365 $2,473 +$108 (+5%)
Will Russia enter Zaporizhia by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $2,429 $2,469 +$39 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $2,278 $2,279 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,998 $1,999 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,998 $1,999 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,522 $1,523 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 20°C or below on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,518 $1,519 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,494 $1,494 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,419 $1,419 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,206 $1,207 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,025 $1,026 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C or below on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,019 $1,019 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $756 $756 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $731 $731 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $711 $712 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $250 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in June? Jun 12 $250 $0 +0%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 12 $250 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 11? Jun 12 $11 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 11? Jun 12 $69 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on June 11? Jun 12 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 16°C on June 11? Jun 12 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 11? Jun 12 $306 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1,998 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on June 11? Jun 11 $7 $0 +0%
Russell 2000 (RUT) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $29 $0 +0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $86 on June 11? Jun 11 $250 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $775 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2,516 +$3 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1,573 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $400 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $482 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $167 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1,159 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 11? Jun 11 $239 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on June 11? Jun 11 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $361 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1,998 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $197 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C on June 11? Jun 11 $388 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1,084 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2,000 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1,355 +$1 +0%
Will Adobe (ADBE) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 11 $250 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $482 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $558 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C or below on June 11? Jun 11 $88 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $379 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $272 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 11? Jun 11 $208 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 11? Jun 11 $148 $0 +0%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $390 on June 11? Jun 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $1.15 on June 11? Jun 11 $49 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 39°C on June 11? Jun 11 $658 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on June 11? Jun 11 $238 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 11? Jun 11 $583 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C or below on June 11? Jun 11 $1,010 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1,040 +$1 +0%
Will next Claude Mythos debut on the Text Arena Leaderboard at 1500+? Jun 11 $250 $0 +0%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $250 $0 +0%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $250 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1,869 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4,719 +$9 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $265 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 78% +$5,311
other 14% +$2,234
world 3% +$271
sports 2% +$52
politics 1% +$9
tech 1% +$4
finance 1% +$3
crypto 0% +$2
economics 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $6 0m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $5 1m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $676 9m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $1 11m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $16 15m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $45 18m
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $999 23m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $55 25m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $5 27m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $115 27m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $7 27m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $38 28m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $223 28m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $2,239 32m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $17 39m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $280 42m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $444 42m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $999 42m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $2,997 44m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $1,758 44m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $4 47m
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $3 55m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $711 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $725 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C or below on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $664 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $1,419 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $756 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)+0.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 602 +10.8% +0.3% 100% 1% -8.2%
≤30d 602 +10.8% +0.3% 100% 1% -8.2%
≤90d 602 +10.8% +0.3% 100% 1% -8.2%
all 602 +10.8% +0.3% 100% 1% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover622.6 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +0.3% 1% -8.2%
10% -9.3% 1% -17.0%
15% ← realistic here -18.1% 1% -25.0%
20% -26.1% 1% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $109,936.08 · official $109,936.08 (match) · 3500 history records