Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:25:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D2 0xd25e…c0c3 crypto 296 markets active 0h ago coverage 83d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,935 (+7%) realized +$1,935 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate58%171W / 125L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$93per market
Trades / day15.9pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days+$12
14 days+$7
30 days−$141
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1,477
other 0% +$11
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -4.7% -13.8% 56% 41% -6.5%
≤30d 102 -4.0% -13.2% 55% 27% -13.3%
≤90d 296 +2.5% -7.3% 58% 36% -4.7%
all 296 +2.5% -7.3% 58% 36% -4.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.3% 36% -4.7%
10% -16.1% 25% -13.8%
15% -24.3% 20% -22.1%
20% -31.7% 14% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$43 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.31 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

83d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,935
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses171 / 125
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)296 / 296
History coverage83d
Avg bet$93
Trades / day15.9
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 296 Trades
no open positions (47 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 18 $11 +$9 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $20 −$4 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 18 $20 −$3 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 18 $16 +$7 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 18 $17 +$4 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$4 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$7 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 18 $21 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 18 $55 −$16 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 18 $3 +$4 +136%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$7 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$6 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +14%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $32 +$28 +88%
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $12 −$3 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 13 $21 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 09 $62 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 09 $45 −$4 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 07 $2 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 07 $2 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 07 $2 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 06 $19 −$5 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 06 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 03 $368 −$55 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 03 $82 −$6 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 03 $24 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 03 $90 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 03 $72 −$13 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 03 $101 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 02 $81 −$15 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 02 $111 −$5 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 02 $54 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 02 $3 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 01 $593 −$32 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 01 $124 +$8 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 01 $109 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET May 31 $7 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET May 31 $19 +$1 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $10 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $11 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $10 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 21¢ $4 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 23¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 4¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 38¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1692 history records