Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T09:55:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D2 0xd262…9ac4 sports 203 markets active 2h ago coverage 171d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$56 (-0%) realized −$56 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate17%34W / 168L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$120per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 26% −$13
sports 24% −$11
other 23% −$15
crypto 8% −$12
finance 4% +$1
economics 4% −$11
world 4% −$4
culture 3% $0
tech 3% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -0.9% -10.3% 0% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 78 -0.5% -10.0% 13% 0% -9.8%
all 202 -0.3% -9.8% 17% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

171d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized−$56
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses34 / 168
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)202 / 203
History coverage171d
Avg bet$120
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 202 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? No 98¢ 97¢ $44 $44 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $93 −$1 -2%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 03 $109 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $441 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 13 $62 $0 -0%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 12 $49 $0 -1%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 12 $219 −$1 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 12 $163 −$2 -1%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 11 $45 $0 -1%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-03-21? May 11 $59 −$1 -1%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $428 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 11 $50 −$1 -2%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $316 −$1 -0%
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $56 −$1 -2%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 10 $43 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? May 09 $36 −$1 -2%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 09 $336 −$1 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $49 $0 -1%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 09 $55 $0 -1%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 08 $102 −$1 -1%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 08 $129 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 08 $59 $0 -0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? May 08 $227 −$1 -0%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $54 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $95 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 06 $58 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom May 06 $102 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 06 $50 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 05 $80 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 05 $230 −$1 -1%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 04 $45 $0 -1%
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 04 $52 −$2 -4%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $54 $0 -1%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $200 $0 -0%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 03 $57 −$1 -1%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 03 $149 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 03 $220 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 02 $397 −$2 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $307 $0 -0%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $50 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 01 $40 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 01 $56 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 01 $54 $0 -1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $506 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $41 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 30 $94 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? Apr 28 $40 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Apr 27 $54 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 22 $218 $0 -0%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 21 $118 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 21 $252 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $44 1h
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 92¢ $43 11d
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 93¢ $43 11d
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $49 25d
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $49 25d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $57 38d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $58 38d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 91¢ $62 47d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 91¢ $16 47d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 91¢ $42 47d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 91¢ $5 47d
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL Yes 92¢ $49 47d
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY Yes 92¢ $49 47d
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $55 47d
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $56 48d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 97¢ $52 48d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 97¢ $52 48d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL No 97¢ $45 48d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 98¢ $45 48d
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-03-21? SELL No 93¢ $58 48d
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-03-21? BUY No 94¢ $59 49d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $55 49d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $56 49d
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 90¢ $49 49d
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 91¢ $50 49d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 94¢ $50 49d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 94¢ $50 49d
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 90¢ $55 49d
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 91¢ $56 50d
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $43 50d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.52 · official $43.52 (match) · 785 history records