Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:53:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D2 0xd262…e939 politics 95 markets active 2h ago coverage 108d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,134 (+1%) realized +$1,132 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate14%13W / 80L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$1,470per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$1,446now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$5
14 days−$20
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% +$94
politics 36% −$61
sports 18% +$1,088
economics 2% −$4
culture 2% −$3
crypto 1% +$4
world 1% +$2
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 22 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 68 -4.5% -13.6% 7% 1% -9.0%
all 93 +1.4% -8.3% 14% 6% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 6% -8.8%
10% -17.0% 6% -17.5%
15% -25.1% 5% -25.5%
20% -32.4% 4% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 81% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,579) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +3% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$126 vs −$7 · ×19.35 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.14 per $1 lost it wins $3.14
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$1,446
Realized+$1,132
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses13 / 80
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions2
Markets (closed)93 / 95
History coverage108d
Avg bet$1,470
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 93 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $791 $793 +$2 (+0%)
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $653 $653 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $456 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $215 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $1,307 −$2 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $1,254 −$2 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $1,198 −$2 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $1,161 −$2 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $3,472 −$4 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $1,516 −$2 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $1,534 −$2 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $1,230 −$2 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $1,293 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $1,749 −$3 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 04 $1,225 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? Jun 04 $358 +$1 +0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 04 $625 +$1 +0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 31 $615 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $1,330 −$2 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 28 $510 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $3,198 −$3 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $5,288 −$5 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $1,239 −$2 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $2,293 −$3 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 07 $1,548 −$2 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $1,546 −$2 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $1,489 −$2 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $1,424 −$2 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 06 $1,493 −$2 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $1,252 −$3 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 05 $1,363 −$2 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 05 $1,458 −$2 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $563 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in April? May 01 $750 +$1 +0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Apr 29 $512 −$1 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 27 $2,058 −$2 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $6,749 −$7 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $2,911 −$3 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $1,461 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 19 $1,366 −$1 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 19 $3,128 −$3 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $3,006 −$3 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $1,569 −$2 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $1,462 −$1 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $1,491 −$2 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $1,082 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $1,483 −$1 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $5,881 −$6 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $1,583 −$2 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $1,384 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 12 $1,032 −$1 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 12 $1,320 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $653 1h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $456 3h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $456 5h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $215 25h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $215 28h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $791 2d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,306 4d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,307 5d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,252 6d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,254 6d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,196 7d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,198 7d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,159 7d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,161 7d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,456 10d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,458 10d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,514 11d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,516 11d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,532 12d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,534 12d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,228 13d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,230 13d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,291 13d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,293 14d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,229 14d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,231 14d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,224 14d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1,225 15d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $615 18d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $615 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,446.29 · official $1,446.29 (match) · 290 history records