Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T14:16:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D2 0xd264…8485 crypto 90 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (164 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$57 (+2%) realized +$57 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate87%77W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day163.9pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 74% −$52
sports 26% +$36
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (164 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 89 -2.0% -11.3% 87% 34% -10.0%
≤30d 89 -2.0% -11.3% 87% 34% -10.0%
≤90d 89 -2.0% -11.3% 87% 34% -10.0%
all 89 -2.0% -11.3% 87% 34% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover163.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.3% 34% -10.0%
10% ← realistic here -19.8% 10% -18.6%
15% -27.6% 4% -26.5%
20% -34.7% 1% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$21 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$57
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses77 / 12
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)89 / 90
History coverage1d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day163.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 89 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 23 $40 −$39 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 23 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 23 $70 −$70 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 23 $60 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 23 $60 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 23 $66 +$8 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 23 $61 +$7 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 23 $60 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 23 $60 +$4 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 23 $60 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 23 $71 +$7 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 23 $60 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 23 $60 +$6 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 23 $50 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 23 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 23 $55 +$32 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 23 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 23 $50 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 23 $50 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 23 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 23 $51 +$12 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 23 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 23 $51 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 23 $60 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 23 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 23 $51 +$8 +15%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Kayla Cross vs Mary Stoiana Jun 23 $40 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 23 $40 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 23 $110 −$110 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 23 $20 +$4 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 23 $40 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 23 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 23 $30 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 23 $30 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 23 $25 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 23 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 23 $20 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 23 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 23 $20 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 23 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 23 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 23 $20 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 23 $20 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 23 $20 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 23 $20 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 23 $20 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 23 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 23 $10 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $40 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $50 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $70 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $63 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $60 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $62 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $60 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $66 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $67 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $61 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $62 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $60 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $64 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $60 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $62 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $60 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $78 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $71 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $62 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $60 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $66 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $60 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $52 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.24 · official $22.27 · 219 history records