Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:59:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D2 0xd264…f6bd sports 47 markets active 2h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$2 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR69%break-even
Win rate74%31W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$144now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$66
7 days−$14
14 days−$11
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% +$35
other 39% −$46
world 1% −$9
crypto 1% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +69%
net ROI/market (all)-6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 +1.8% -7.9% 71% 68% -10.7%
≤30d 42 +3.9% -6.0% 74% 69% -10.5%
≤90d 42 +3.9% -6.0% 74% 69% -10.5%
all 42 +3.9% -6.0% 74% 69% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.0% 69% -10.5%
10% -15.0% 50% -19.0%
15% -23.2% 29% -26.9%
20% -30.7% 17% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$22 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$144
Realized−$2
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses31 / 11
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions5
Markets (closed)42 / 47
History coverage10d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? No 89¢ 88¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? No 69¢ 68¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? No 83¢ 82¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? No 88¢ 88¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 27¢ 2¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-91%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $30 +$3 +10%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 24 $20 +$5 +26%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $40 +$7 +17%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $40 +$4 +11%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $21 −$5 -24%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $65 +$12 +18%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $90 +$14 +16%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $86 +$26 +31%
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 23 $40 +$7 +17%
France vs. Iraq: Second half draw? Jun 23 $18 +$4 +21%
France vs. Iraq: Draw at halftime? Jun 22 $45 +$13 +29%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $20 +$6 +27%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $66 +$12 +19%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 21 $20 +$8 +38%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Draw at halftime? Jun 21 $30 +$10 +32%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $13 −$13 -99%
Japan to win the second half? Jun 21 $49 +$14 +28%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 21 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime? Jun 21 $23 −$23 -100%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Second half draw? Jun 21 $50 −$50 -100%
Ecuador leading at halftime? Jun 21 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $15 +$7 +46%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Draw at halftime? Jun 20 $15 +$8 +52%
Netherlands leading at halftime? Jun 20 $6 +$8 +124%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Draw at halftime? Jun 20 $40 +$25 +62%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $4 +$1 +27%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $30 +$11 +38%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $2 +$2 +93%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 +$3 +34%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 +$6 +62%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $14 +$8 +57%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $8 +$3 +40%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $1 +$1 +59%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $2 −$1 -39%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $6 +$2 +40%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 $0 +6%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 $0 +34%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY No 88¢ $25 1h
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? BUY No 83¢ $30 1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 89¢ $50 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY No 69¢ $40 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 91¢ $30 7h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 85¢ $40 10h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY No 89¢ $30 14h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY No 79¢ $20 19h
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY No 90¢ $40 19h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 4¢ $16 19h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 19h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 19h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 100¢ $105 28h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL No 100¢ $57 28h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY No 78¢ $45 31h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 86¢ $90 31h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL No 77¢ $20 31h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $25 33h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $40 33h
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score in Second Half SELL No 100¢ $47 33h
France vs. Iraq: Second half draw? SELL No 100¢ $22 33h
France vs. Iraq: Second half draw? BUY No 82¢ $18 35h
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY No 85¢ $40 35h
France vs. Iraq: Draw at halftime? SELL No 100¢ $58 35h
France vs. Iraq: Draw at halftime? BUY No 77¢ $5 36h
France vs. Iraq: Draw at halftime? BUY No 76¢ $20 36h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY No 73¢ $20 2d
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY No 78¢ $20 2d
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY No 78¢ $20 2d
France vs. Iraq: Draw at halftime? BUY No 78¢ $20 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $144.20 · official $144.20 (match) · 101 history records