Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:53:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D2 0xd265…82af other 140 markets active 2h ago coverage 252d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$11,428 (+23%) realized +$11,435 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate41%56W / 79L
Whale WR63%big bets
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$362per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$593now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$155
7 days−$155
14 days+$513
30 days+$366
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% +$13,628
world 20% −$437
crypto 5% −$158
economics 3% −$729
politics 1% −$733
finance 1% −$105
sports 1% +$2
tech 1% −$146
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -38.7% -44.6% 0% 0% -59.0%
≤30d 13 -5.2% -14.2% 23% 15% -0.5%
≤90d 44 -2.5% -11.8% 27% 23% -21.0%
all 135 +2.9% -6.9% 41% 28% +11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.9% 28% +11.0%
10% -15.8% 20% +0.3%
15% -24.0% 19% -9.3%
20% -31.4% 13% -18.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 60% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 63% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +8% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$353 vs −$111 · ×3.17 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.34 per $1 lost it wins $2.34
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

252d coverage
Net worth$593
Realized+$11,435
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses56 / 79
Whale WR (big bets)63%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions5
Markets (closed)135 / 140
History coverage252d
Avg bet$362
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 135 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $329 $326 −$3 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $136 $135 −$1 (-1%)
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $88 $86 −$2 (-2%)
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $24 $24 −$0 (-2%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $24 $23 −$1 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $123 −$13 -11%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$1 -6%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $143 −$141 -98%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $524 +$669 +128%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 01 $214 −$61 -28%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Jun 01 $301 −$52 -17%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 01 $53 −$8 -15%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 01 $360 −$29 -8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? May 25 $644 −$115 -18%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 23 $549 +$36 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 23 $634 +$88 +14%
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? May 21 $19 −$1 -6%
Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch? May 21 $77 −$5 -7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026? May 09 $749 +$19 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 07 $60 +$51 +86%
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? May 02 $88 −$21 -24%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? May 01 $897 +$346 +39%
Printr FDV above $50M one day after launch? Apr 30 $136 −$29 -21%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch? Apr 30 $167 −$33 -20%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Apr 29 $362 +$227 +63%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? Apr 28 $285 −$130 -46%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 28 $213 −$205 -96%
GPT-5.5 released by April 23, 2026? Apr 24 $222 −$94 -43%
GPT-5.5 released by April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $28 −$28 -100%
GPT-5.5 released by April 30, 2026? Apr 22 $32 −$23 -72%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 20 $90 +$144 +160%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 19 $36 +$40 +111%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $42 +$8 +20%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? Apr 19 $78 −$36 -46%
Claude 4.7 released by April 30? Apr 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Claude 4.7 released by April 17? Apr 17 $140 −$140 -100%
Claude 4.7 released by April 24? Apr 17 $206 −$206 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April? Apr 15 $5 −$4 -74%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? Apr 15 $36 −$31 -87%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? Apr 15 $31 −$24 -78%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 15 $126 −$82 -65%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Apr 13 $749 −$733 -98%
Another crypto hack over $100m by December 31? Apr 12 $801 −$440 -55%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? Apr 07 $62 −$29 -47%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? Apr 07 $213 −$76 -36%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 07 $57 +$144 +253%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 07 $60 +$400 +667%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 26 $1,096 −$384 -35%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Mar 20 $400 −$400 -100%
Opinion FDV above $600M one day after launch? Mar 07 $210 +$90 +43%
Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch? Mar 07 $182 +$248 +136%
Opinion FDV above $800M one day after launch? Mar 07 $366 +$34 +9%
Opinion FDV above $400M one day after launch? Mar 07 $614 +$334 +54%
Paradex FDV above $500M one day after launch? Mar 06 $288 +$11 +4%
USD.AI FDV above $500M one day after launch? Mar 04 $312 +$44 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $137 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $25 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $144 1h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $90 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $25 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $188 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 28¢ $110 17h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $123 23h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 4¢ $19 23h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 4¢ $20 23h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $143 24h
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,192 12d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 43¢ $36 14d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 43¢ $0 14d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 43¢ $0 14d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 43¢ $116 14d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $153 14d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 43¢ $371 14d
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $248 14d
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $45 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $72 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $210 18d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 20d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 20d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 20d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 20d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 20d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $7 20d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 20d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $20 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $593.44 · official $593.44 (match) · 790 history records