Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:54:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D2 0xd268…4537 other 166 markets active 1h ago coverage 147d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$3,215 (-1%) realized −$3,215 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate19%31W / 134L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,620per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$504now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$20
14 days−$88
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% +$248
politics 38% −$123
sports 13% −$3,351
world 3% −$7
culture 3% −$11
economics 2% −$6
crypto 1% +$4
tech 0% −$2
finance 0% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.1% -9.6% 11% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 50 +1.4% -8.3% 14% 8% -9.5%
≤90d 121 -7.7% -16.5% 7% 3% -11.1%
all 165 +1.4% -8.2% 19% 10% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 10% -10.6%
10% -17.0% 10% -19.2%
15% -25.0% 8% -27.0%
20% -32.4% 7% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,344) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +2% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$31 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

147d coverage
Net worth$504
Realized−$3,215
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses31 / 134
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)165 / 166
History coverage147d
Avg bet$1,620
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 165 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $504 $504 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $209 $0 +0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $1,107 −$1 -0%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $1,024 −$2 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $1,265 −$2 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 15 $1,281 −$2 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $1,217 −$1 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 14 $4,110 −$6 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $3,489 −$4 -0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 11 $1,271 −$2 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $3,815 −$4 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $2,692 −$4 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $917 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $610 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $2,344 −$3 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $906 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $710 −$1 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $986 −$2 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 06 $1,410 −$2 -0%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 06 $47 −$47 -100%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $1,316 −$2 -0%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 04 $67 +$49 +73%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $2,587 −$4 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $6,639 −$8 -0%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 03 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $3,001 −$3 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $5,624 −$7 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $1,542 −$2 -0%
Will XRP reach $2.40 in May? Jun 01 $151 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 01 $600 +$4 +1%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $3,562 −$4 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $781 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $3,463 −$4 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $3,665 −$3 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 27 $1,869 −$3 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me May 27 $514 −$1 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $1,173 −$2 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 26 $1,175 −$2 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $2,555 −$3 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $2,479 −$3 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $2,663 −$3 -0%
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $52 +$24 +46%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $2,787 −$4 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $2,716 −$3 -0%
Seattle Mariners vs. Kansas City Royals May 23 $75 +$55 +73%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $1,430 −$2 -0%
Will John Stephens win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? May 22 $1,031 −$1 -0%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals May 21 $83 +$69 +83%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $1,373 −$2 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 21 $1,138 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $4,384 −$5 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $505 1h
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,106 19h
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,107 21h
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,023 24h
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,024 25h
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $1,263 2d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $1,265 2d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,279 2d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,281 2d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $1,216 2d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $1,217 3d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,054 3d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,056 3d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,091 4d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,092 4d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $209 6d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,269 6d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,271 7d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,162 7d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,164 7d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,320 7d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,322 8d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $915 8d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $917 8d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $609 8d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $610 9d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $1,163 9d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $1,164 9d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $905 9d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $906 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $504.19 · official $504.19 (match) · 563 history records