Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T02:19:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D2 0xd26b…b09f other 194 markets active 0h ago coverage 31d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$775 (-9%) realized −$775 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate33%64W / 130L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day12.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit34%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$176
7 days−$318
14 days−$547
30 days−$855
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% −$688
crypto 25% −$120
sports 1% −$45
weather 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-23.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 96 -15.6% -23.7% 21% 20% -14.5%
≤30d 192 -14.9% -23.0% 33% 30% -18.2%
≤90d 194 -15.8% -23.8% 33% 30% -18.3%
all 194 -15.8% -23.8% 33% 30% -18.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.8% 30% -18.3%
10% -31.1% 24% -26.1%
15% -37.8% 18% -33.2%
20% -43.9% 14% -39.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$26 · ×1.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$775
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses64 / 130
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)194 / 194
History coverage31d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day12.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit34%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 194 Trades
no open positions (70 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $47 −$32 -69%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $66 +$363 +547%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $123 +$4 +3%
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $82 −$35 -43%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $204 −$145 -71%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $30 −$3 -9%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $62 +$62 +101%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $62 +$136 +221%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $62 −$13 -21%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $41 −$24 -58%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $203 +$46 +22%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $307 −$292 -95%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $304 +$197 +65%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $467 −$162 -35%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $46 +$15 +32%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $228 +$223 +98%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $530 −$150 -28%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $262 $0 -0%
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $102 −$33 -32%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $1 $0 -6%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 19 $204 −$159 -78%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $33 −$33 -97%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $31 −$9 -31%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 2 Australia? Jun 19 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 2 Australia? Jun 19 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $35 −$30 -87%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $31 −$20 -66%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $31 −$2 -5%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $31 −$28 -92%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $31 −$24 -77%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $21 −$16 -78%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? Jun 18 $31 −$27 -87%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $102 +$359 +351%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $153 −$52 -34%
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 1 Panama? Jun 17 $30 −$29 -97%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 2 Panama? Jun 17 $36 −$35 -97%
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $14 −$14 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $21 +$34 +167%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $21 −$6 -29%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $21 −$8 -37%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$8 -38%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 2¢ $15 27m
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao? SELL Yes 73¢ $429 29m
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao? SELL Yes 19¢ $126 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 7¢ $19 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 7¢ $28 1h
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Curaçao? SELL Yes 9¢ $47 1h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 11¢ $66 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 10¢ $59 1h
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 18¢ $123 1h
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 15¢ $82 2h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 33¢ $204 2h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? SELL Yes 6¢ $27 4h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? SELL Yes 10¢ $86 4h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? SELL Yes 10¢ $38 4h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? SELL Yes 37¢ $198 4h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? SELL Yes 10¢ $49 4h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? SELL Yes 3¢ $10 5h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? SELL Yes 5¢ $7 5h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 5h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 6¢ $30 7h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 8¢ $41 7h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 5¢ $62 7h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 12¢ $62 7h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 11¢ $62 7h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 61¢ $249 8h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 48¢ $203 9h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 1¢ $15 9h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 19¢ $307 9h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 83¢ $336 21h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 42¢ $165 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 416 history records