trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | -0.5% | -10.0% | 0% | 0% | -10.0% |
| ≤30d | 10 | +0.5% | -9.0% | 50% | 10% | -7.5% |
| ≤90d | 10 | +0.5% | -9.0% | 50% | 10% | -7.5% |
| all | 26 | -2.1% | -11.4% | 46% | 4% | -8.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -11.4% | 4% | -8.6% |
| 10% | -19.9% | 0% | -17.3% |
| 15% | -27.6% | 0% | -25.3% |
| 20% | -34.7% | 0% | -32.6% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 26¢ | 26¢ | $34 | $33 | −$1 (-2%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 18 | $47 | $0 | +0% |
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | Jun 17 | $43 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | May 26 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? | May 25 | $47 | $0 | +0% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | May 25 | $83 | +$6 | +8% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | May 25 | $1 | $0 | +8% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | May 24 | $17 | +$2 | +11% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | May 23 | $3 | $0 | +3% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | May 23 | $12 | −$2 | -17% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | May 23 | $4 | $0 | -6% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $115K in June? | Dec 14 | $1 | $0 | +7% |
| Will Rumble buy TikTok? | Jun 28 | $25 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? | Jun 26 | $5 | $0 | +5% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June? | Jun 02 | $25 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? | May 28 | $3 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Lee Jae-myung win 60-65% of the vote in the South Korea election? | May 25 | $2 | −$1 | -63% |
| Will Francesca Muñoz win the Chilean presidential election? | May 25 | $25 | $0 | +0% |
| Will federal spending decrease by $750b-1t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025 | May 24 | $25 | $0 | +0% |
| Will 'Fatal' win Crunchyroll's Best Anime Song Award for 2025? | May 23 | $25 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Elon and DOGE cut between $100-150b in federal spending in 2025? | May 22 | $24 | $0 | -0% |
| Will George Russell finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? | May 22 | $26 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? | May 21 | $4 | $0 | -0% |
| Will 'Mononoke The Movie: The Phantom in the Rain' win Crunchyroll's F | May 20 | $22 | $0 | +0% |
| Will PRO win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 | May 20 | $1 | $0 | -10% |
| Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 | May 20 | $23 | +$1 | +2% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? | May 19 | $27 | $0 | -1% |