Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:11:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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D2 0xd26e…cc2e crypto 182 markets active 2h ago coverage 31d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$382 (-17%) realized −$385 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -52% what you keep after slip
Net edge-52%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate17%29W / 145L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day13.0pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$47
7 days−$313
14 days−$313
30 days−$722
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 48% −$40
crypto 33% −$354
other 19% −$41
world 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-47.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 164 -42.0% -47.5% 16% 16% -32.4%
≤30d 172 -44.2% -49.5% 16% 16% -48.4%
≤90d 174 -42.3% -47.8% 17% 17% -30.1%
all 174 -42.3% -47.8% 17% 17% -30.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -47.8% 17% -30.1%
10% -52.8% 17% -36.8%
15% -57.3% 17% -42.9%
20% -61.5% 15% -48.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -42% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -54% → late -31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$8 · ×3.11 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$385
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses29 / 145
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions1
Markets (closed)174 / 182
History coverage31d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day13.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 174 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 53¢ 72¢ $7 $10 +$3 (+37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 125 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 18 $6 +$12 +193%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$3 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -94%
Andrés Gómez: 1+ goals Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 17 $36 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $11 −$11 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $5 +$15 +291%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $22 +$19 +86%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $12 −$12 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$9 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $4 $0 -10%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $9 −$1 -14%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $7 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $14 −$8 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$2 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 $0 -9%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $4 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -94%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET SELL Down 73¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET SELL Down 39¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 2h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 3h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 AND Czechia vs. South BUY 7¢ $8 4h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia BUY 4¢ $8 4h
Andrés Gómez: 1+ goals BUY Yes 34¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 14h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 15h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 16h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 16h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 18¢ $18 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 32h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $7 33h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 33h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 54¢ $11 33h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score AND Portugal leading at halftime BUY 9¢ $5 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.26 · official $25.40 · 430 history records