Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T21:32:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
D2 0xd270…4977 other 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 499d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$48 (-28%) realized −$48 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -44% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip
Net edge-50%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate45%5W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$14
14 days+$14
30 days+$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% −$37
world 13% $0
politics 7% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-49.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +19.7% +8.3% 100% 33% +8.0%
≤30d 3 +19.7% +8.3% 100% 33% +8.0%
≤90d 3 +19.7% +8.3% 100% 33% +8.0%
all 11 -44.3% -49.6% 45% 18% -31.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -49.6% 18% -31.4%
10% -54.4% 18% -38.0%
15% -58.8% 9% -44.0%
20% -62.9% 0% -49.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 74% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% too few recent
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -44% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$10 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

499d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$48
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses5 / 6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 11
History coverage499d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $35 +$2 +6%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $16 +$1 +5%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $24 +$12 +48%
Trump releases Epstein list today? Feb 27 $12 −$3 -27%
Will Mitch McConnell vote to confirm Kash Patel as FBI Director? Feb 24 $23 −$23 -100%
Will 52 Senators vote to confirm RFK as Secretary of HHS? Feb 14 $21 +$2 +10%
Will Mitch McConnell vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard Jr. as Director of Feb 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Will John Fetterman vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard Jr. as Director of N Feb 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will 51 Senators vote to confirm RFK as Secretary of HHS? Feb 13 $1 −$1 -93%
Will 53 Senators vote to confirm RFK as Secretary of HHS? Feb 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Will John Curtis vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard Jr. as Director of Nati Feb 12 $9 +$3 +35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 89¢ $5 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 95¢ $30 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? BUY No 95¢ $16 4d
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 67¢ $24 5d
Trump releases Epstein list today? BUY No 79¢ $3 483d
Trump releases Epstein list today? SELL Yes 21¢ $2 483d
Trump releases Epstein list today? BUY Yes 79¢ $9 484d
Will Mitch McConnell vote to confirm Kash Patel as FBI Director? BUY No 83¢ $23 497d
Will 51 Senators vote to confirm RFK as Secretary of HHS? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 498d
Will 53 Senators vote to confirm RFK as Secretary of HHS? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 498d
Will 52 Senators vote to confirm RFK as Secretary of HHS? BUY Yes 91¢ $11 498d
Will 52 Senators vote to confirm RFK as Secretary of HHS? BUY Yes 91¢ $10 498d
Will 51 Senators vote to confirm RFK as Secretary of HHS? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 498d
Will 53 Senators vote to confirm RFK as Secretary of HHS? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 498d
Will John Curtis vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard Jr. as Director of Nati SELL Yes 100¢ $12 499d
Will Mitch McConnell vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard Jr. as Director of BUY Yes 14¢ $19 499d
Will John Fetterman vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard Jr. as Director of N BUY Yes 0¢ $1 499d
Will John Curtis vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard Jr. as Director of Nati BUY Yes 74¢ $9 499d
Will Mitch McConnell vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard Jr. as Director of BUY Yes 14¢ $11 499d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.12 · official $37.12 (match) · 25 history records