Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:36:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
D2 0xd27a…a9d1 sports 47 markets active 1h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,362 (-13%) realized −$1,311 · open −$51
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate71%24W / 10L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$216per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$47est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$2,189now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,182
7 days−$1,258
14 days−$1,250
30 days−$1,250
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% −$1,193
other 12% −$116
crypto 2% +$8
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -4.2% -13.3% 69% 50% -24.1%
≤30d 34 -1.3% -10.7% 71% 50% -24.0%
≤90d 34 -1.3% -10.7% 71% 50% -24.0%
all 34 -1.3% -10.7% 71% 50% -24.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 50% -24.0%
10% -19.2% 35% -31.3%
15% -27.0% 26% -37.9%
20% -34.2% 18% -44.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$221 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$2,189
Realized−$1,311
Unrealized−$51
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses24 / 10
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$47
Open positions11
Markets (closed)34 / 47
History coverage18d
Avg bet$216
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 Under 81¢ 78¢ $1,790 $1,741 −$49 (-3%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 Under 88¢ 86¢ $200 $197 −$3 (-2%)
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Sweden 68¢ 68¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Uzbekistan 56¢ 56¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Panama 81¢ 81¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 88¢ 88¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 76¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+14%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Korea Republic 78¢ 78¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $101 +$20 +20%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $203 +$148 +73%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $201 +$31 +15%
Spread: Jordan (-1.5) Jun 17 $600 +$16 +3%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $1,228 +$179 +15%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $201 −$200 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $67 +$2 +2%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $1,303 +$102 +8%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $804 −$691 -86%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 June 15-21? Jun 17 $202 +$8 +4%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $201 +$41 +21%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 +$24 +48%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $762 −$757 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $69 +$47 +68%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $202 −$133 -66%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $603 +$140 +23%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $202 −$200 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $36 +$33 +93%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $107 +$13 +12%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $100 +$7 +6%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $86 +$50 +58%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $52 +$14 +27%
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $20 $0 -2%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $30 +$32 +105%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 12 $55 +$19 +34%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $51 −$50 -99%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 11 $10 $0 +3%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $53 +$22 +41%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $15 +$6 +41%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $8 +$7 +83%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of June? Jun 08 $10 +$1 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 79¢ $243 40m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 83¢ $101 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 57¢ $203 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 81¢ $1,006 15h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 88¢ $201 15h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 81¢ $503 16h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 80¢ $49 16h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 90¢ $201 16h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $20 16h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 92¢ $200 17h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 86¢ $1,004 19h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 86¢ $23 19h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 91¢ $301 19h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) SELL Algeria 12¢ $114 19h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 June 15-21? SELL No 88¢ $210 19h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $67 20h
Spread: Jordan (-1.5) BUY Austria 97¢ $600 20h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 93¢ $1,002 20h
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 1.5 BUY Under 86¢ $201 22h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Algeria 83¢ $503 22h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND BUY 25¢ $31 31h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Algeria 79¢ $101 35h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $101 35h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 June 15-21? BUY No 83¢ $202 39h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 88¢ $20 39h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $10 39h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Sweden 68¢ $50 39h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $50 39h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Korea Republic 78¢ $10 39h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 76¢ $20 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,188.73 · official $2,188.73 (match) · 88 history records