Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T02:56:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D2
0xd27a…12b0
world · 66 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$229 -10%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$227 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP world specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$227
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses35 / 30
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)65 / 66
History coverage605d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%
Chart Positions 1 History 65 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$11
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 1¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-97%)
Israel x Iran ceasefire before July? No 14¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
US x Iran nuclear talks resume before July? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
US government shutdown by October 1? No 33¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
US x Iran ceasefire before July? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Yuichiro Tamaki be the next Prime Minister of Japan? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
US x Venezuela military engagement by January 15, 2026? No 84¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 15? Yes 77¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Israel strikes Gaza by October 17? No 60¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Israel strikes Gaza by October 31? No 45¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium before August? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Under 58¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 54¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $2 +$1 +70%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -99%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $2 +$1 +73%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $10 −$10 -98%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Apr 23 $5 +$1 +22%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Apr 23 $5 +$2 +43%
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Jan 31? Apr 23 $7 +$1 +14%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Jan 09 $1 $0 +5%
US x Venezuela military engagement by January 15, 2026? Dec 31 $5 −$5 -100%
100% tariff on China in effect by November 1? Nov 16 $1 $0 +19%
US x Venezuela military engagement by October 31? Nov 16 $1 $0 +30%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? Nov 16 $1 $0 +41%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $114,000 on October 14? Oct 15 $1 $0 +25%
Israel strikes Gaza by October 31? Oct 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Israel strikes Gaza by October 17? Oct 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 15? Oct 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Yuichiro Tamaki be the next Prime Minister of Japan? Oct 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Xi Jinping out before October? Oct 14 $10 $0 +0%
US government shutdown by October 1? Sep 26 $1 −$1 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025? Sep 26 $2 −$1 -70%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Sep 26 $5 +$1 +20%
Israel x Iran ceasefire before July? Jun 24 $7 −$2 -29%
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July? Jun 24 $2 −$1 -41%
Another U.S. strike on Fordow nuclear facility before July? Jun 24 $5 −$4 -89%
US x Iran ceasefire before July? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July? Jun 24 $70 −$65 -92%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz in 2025? Jun 24 $10 −$7 -74%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium before August? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
US x Iran nuclear talks resume before July? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran before July? Jun 22 $5 $0 -9%
Will Israel declare war on Iran by Friday? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal before July? Jun 22 $5 −$3 -70%
US military action against Iran before July? Jun 22 $50 +$39 +78%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2024? Dec 02 $50 +$1 +3%
U.S. military action against Iran in 2024? Dec 02 $50 +$3 +7%
Will a nuclear weapon detonate in 2024? Dec 02 $50 +$4 +8%
Iran Nuke in 2024? Dec 02 $50 +$12 +23%
MSFT shareholders vote for Bitcoin investment? Dec 02 $10 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon before December? Dec 02 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k today? Dec 02 $50 +$9 +18%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k by Friday? Nov 20 $50 +$12 +24%
Trump wins every swing state? Nov 11 $50 −$50 -100%
Will either Kamala or Trump win every swing state? Nov 11 $217 −$217 -100%
Trump blowout victory? Nov 09 $50 +$10 +19%
Will Kamala Harris win all 6 swing states? Nov 09 $54 +$7 +14%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 06 $120 −$67 -56%
Iran strike on Israel on Nov 5? Nov 06 $156 +$18 +11%
Will Trump sell shares of DJT before the election? Nov 06 $50 +$3 +6%
Another Israeli military action against Iran before the election? Nov 06 $157 +$11 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 64% +$79
politics 23% −$316
crypto 5% +$62
other 4% −$62
tech 2% +$8
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 1h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $2 17h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $2 17h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $2 25h
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $2 37h
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 13d
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Jan 31? BUY No 88¢ $7 154d
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $5 154d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? BUY No 82¢ $5 154d
US x Venezuela military engagement by January 15, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $5 163d
Israel strikes Gaza by October 31? BUY No 45¢ $1 241d
Israel strikes Gaza by October 17? BUY No 60¢ $1 241d
Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 15? BUY Yes 77¢ $1 241d
Will Yuichiro Tamaki be the next Prime Minister of Japan? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 241d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $114,000 on October 14? BUY No 80¢ $1 241d
Xi Jinping out in 2025? BUY No 95¢ $1 241d
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? BUY Yes 71¢ $1 241d
US x Venezuela military engagement by October 31? BUY No 77¢ $1 241d
100% tariff on China in effect by November 1? BUY No 84¢ $1 241d
Xi Jinping out before October? BUY No 100¢ $10 259d
US government shutdown by October 1? BUY No 33¢ $1 259d
US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 259d
Israel x Iran ceasefire before July? BUY No 14¢ $2 353d
Israel x Iran ceasefire before July? SELL Yes 86¢ $5 353d
Israel x Iran ceasefire before July? BUY Yes 84¢ $5 353d
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July? SELL Yes 30¢ $1 353d
Another U.S. strike on Fordow nuclear facility before July? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 353d
US x Iran ceasefire before July? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 354d
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July? SELL Yes 3¢ $5 354d
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz in 2025? SELL Yes 16¢ $3 354d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-27.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -14.1% -22.3% 50% 50% -21.8%
≤30d 5 -31.3% -37.8% 40% 40% -65.1%
≤90d 8 -9.8% -18.4% 62% 62% -27.3%
all 65 -19.3% -27.0% 54% 38% -18.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.0% 38% -18.4%
10% -34.0% 23% -26.2%
15% -40.4% 11% -33.3%
20% -46.2% 8% -39.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.05 · official $0.06 (match) · 128 history records