Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:34:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D2 0xd27a…71eb crypto 65 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (94 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$173 (+8%) realized +$180 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate59%35W / 24L
Drawdown84%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day93.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$183now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 71% +$63
other 25% +$75
sports 4% −$62
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (94 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 +2.9% -6.9% 59% 49% -5.7%
≤30d 59 +2.9% -6.9% 59% 49% -5.7%
≤90d 59 +2.9% -6.9% 59% 49% -5.7%
all 59 +2.9% -6.9% 59% 49% -5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover93.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.9% 49% -5.7%
10% ← realistic here -15.8% 39% -14.7%
15% -23.9% 34% -23.0%
20% -31.4% 27% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$20 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$183
Realized+$180
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses35 / 24
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)59 / 65
History coverage2d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day93.9
Drawdown84%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 25¢ 26¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+2%)
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 8¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-57%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 18 $20 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 18 $8 +$7 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 18 $8 +$4 +46%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$20 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 17 $8 +$6 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 17 $13 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $14 +$23 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 17 $19 −$18 -96%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 +$37 +73%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $45 −$45 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $8 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $8 +$15 +177%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 17 $44 +$6 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$14 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 17 $15 +$10 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 17 $13 +$9 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$11 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 17 $15 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$2 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $116 +$54 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $102 +$15 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $56 +$2 +4%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$6 +56%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$50 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $31 +$30 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $41 +$11 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $101 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $46 +$39 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $41 +$10 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $103 −$94 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $82 +$14 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$9 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$9 +167%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $31 +$36 +115%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $42 +$8 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 16 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$24 +94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $23 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $20 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $16 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $8 13m
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 29¢ $102 1h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 25¢ $31 2h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $51 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $8 2h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $20 3h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 25¢ $31 3h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $20 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $8 4h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $14 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $8 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Up 67¢ $16 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $13 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $14 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $14 4h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 5h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $41 5h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $88 5h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $45 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $9 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $8 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $23 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $8 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $182.96 · official $192.99 · 190 history records