Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T01:50:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

D2 0xd27b…76f6 sports 21 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)

Total PnL −$33 (-10%) realized −$66 · open +$33

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -52% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -58% what you keep after slip

Net edge-58%after slip

Net WR25%break-even

Win rate25%5W / 15L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$16per market

Trades / day4.6pace

Fees−$5est.

Kalshi-fit81%portable

Net worth$71now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +25%

net ROI/market (all)-56.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	20	-51.9%	-56.4%	25%	25%	-16.2%
≤30d	20	-51.9%	-56.4%	25%	25%	-16.2%
≤90d	20	-51.9%	-56.4%	25%	25%	-16.2%
all	20	-51.9%	-56.4%	25%	25%	-16.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover4.6 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-56.4%	25%	-16.2%
10%	-60.6%	25%	-24.2%
15%	-64.4%	20%	-31.5%
20%	-67.9%	15%	-38.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 40% · top 2 80% concentrated in a few bets

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -52% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -48% → late -55% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$25 vs −$10 · ×2.56 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×0.85 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage

Net worth$71

Realized−$66

Unrealized+$33

Win rate (resolved)25%

Wins / losses5 / 15

Est. fees paid−$5

Open positions1

Markets (closed)20 / 21

History coverage5d

Avg bet$16

Trades / day4.6

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 20 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5	Over	53¢	100¢	$38	$71	+$33 (+89%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Iraq?	Jun 23	$3	−$3	-100%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Iraq?	Jun 23	$4	−$4	-100%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5	Jun 23	$44	+$49	+113%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5	Jun 22	$18	−$18	-100%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)	Jun 22	$38	+$51	+133%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw?	Jun 21	$5	−$5	-100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 0.5	Jun 21	$8	−$8	-100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5	Jun 21	$18	−$18	-100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden 1st Half O/U 0.5	Jun 20	$7	−$7	-100%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5)	Jun 20	$8	−$8	-100%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw?	Jun 20	$7	−$7	-100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5	Jun 20	$19	+$12	+66%
Spread: Sweden (-2.5)	Jun 20	$9	−$2	-25%
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5	Jun 18	$25	−$25	-100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5	Jun 18	$18	−$18	-100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5	Jun 18	$17	−$17	-100%
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia?	Jun 17	$1	−$1	-100%
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia?	Jun 17	$4	−$4	-100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5	Jun 17	$18	+$7	+42%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5	Jun 17	$17	+$6	+35%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	53¢	$38	2h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Iraq?	BUY Yes	5¢	$4	5h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	46¢	$44	5h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Iraq?	BUY Yes	8¢	$3	5h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	49¢	$18	11h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)	BUY Argentina	42¢	$20	11h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)	BUY Argentina	42¢	$18	11h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	38¢	$18	2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 0.5	BUY Under	24¢	$8	2d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw?	BUY Yes	19¢	$5	2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	100¢	$31	2d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw?	BUY Yes	6¢	$7	2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden 1st Half O/U 0.5	BUY Over	39¢	$7	2d
Spread: Sweden (-2.5)	SELL Sweden	2¢	$7	2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	59¢	$19	2d
Spread: Sweden (-1.5)	BUY Sweden	8¢	$8	2d
Spread: Sweden (-2.5)	BUY Sweden	2¢	$9	2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5	BUY Under	30¢	$17	4d
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5	BUY Under	33¢	$18	4d
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5	BUY Over	65¢	$25	5d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5	SELL Over	100¢	$25	5d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5	BUY Over	69¢	$18	5d
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia?	BUY Yes	12¢	$1	5d
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia?	BUY Yes	22¢	$4	5d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5	BUY Over	73¢	$17	5d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $70.83 · official $70.83 (match) · 42 history records