Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:27:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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D2 0xd27c…c081 sports 245 markets active 0h ago coverage 37d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 36d only
✗ bot/MM pace (93 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$208,049 (-22%) realized −$208,156 · open +$107
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip
Net edge-50%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate46%151W / 174L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,819per market
Trades / day93.2pace
Fees−$9,402est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$706now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$242,524
7 days−$237,597
14 days−$238,620
30 days−$265,047
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% −$49,989
crypto 5% −$4,549
other 1% −$1,323
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (93 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-35.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 104 -77.3% -79.5% 12% 12% -75.7%
≤30d 272 -31.7% -38.2% 44% 41% -33.0%
≤90d 325 -28.3% -35.2% 46% 43% -30.6%
all 325 -28.3% -35.2% 46% 43% -30.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover93.2 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -35.2% 43% -30.6%
10% -41.4% 30% -37.3%
15% ← realistic here -47.0% 20% -43.3%
20% -52.2% 10% -48.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$4,447) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -7% → late -49% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
9.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,151 vs −$2,710 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$706
Realized−$208,156
Unrealized+$107
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses151 / 174
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$9,402
Open positions2
Markets (closed)325 / 245
History coverage37d ⚠
Avg bet$3,819
Trades / day93.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 325 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Saudi Arabia 60¢ 72¢ $559 $667 +$107 (+19%)
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries Golden State Valkyries 65¢ 64¢ $39 $39 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 117 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Canucks vs. Kraken Jun 15 $940 −$940 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Alexa Grasso vs. Maycee Barber (Women's Flyweight, Ma Jun 15 $6,930 −$6,930 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 9? Jun 15 $71 −$71 -100%
Solana Up or Down - November 3, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $566 −$566 -100%
KHL: HC Dynamo Moscow vs. Admiral Vladivostok Jun 15 $710 −$710 -100%
Clippers vs. Pelicans Jun 15 $2,027 −$3,203 -158%
Ducks vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $4,666 −$4,666 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 15 $3,584 −$3,965 -111%
Miami Open: Francisco Cerundolo vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 15 $3,372 −$3,372 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 4AM ET Jun 15 $1,379 −$1,379 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 5PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Delija vs. Cortes-Acosta Jun 15 $1,368 −$1,368 -100%
Brisbane International: Jiri Lehecka vs Sebastian Korda Jun 15 $2,007 −$2,007 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 15 $2,964 −$2,964 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 15 $2,708 −$2,708 -100%
Pakistan Super League: Quetta Gladiators vs Karachi Kings Jun 15 $3,836 −$3,836 -100%
Will Biden pardon Jim Biden? Jun 15 $4,196 −$4,196 -100%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Lucknow Super Giants Jun 15 $3,512 −$4,240 -121%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 15 $2,970 −$2,970 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $631 −$631 -100%
UFC 327: Jirí Procházka vs. Carlos Ulberg (Light Heavyweight, Main Car Jun 15 $5,473 −$5,473 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Jazz Jun 15 $3,330 −$3,330 -100%
LoL: Fnatic vs Shifters (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier Playo Jun 15 $1,223 −$1,223 -100%
Virginia Cavaliers vs. Iowa Hawkeyes (W) Jun 15 $2,551 −$4,239 -166%
BNP Paribas Open, Qualification: Katie Boulter vs Victoria Jimenez Kas Jun 15 $2,339 −$2,339 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 4PM ET Jun 15 $531 −$531 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $1,335 −$1,335 -100%
Hornets vs. Magic Jun 15 $2,618 −$2,618 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 7PM ET Jun 15 $1,586 −$1,586 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 4 Winner Jun 15 $2,134 −$2,134 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $330 −$330 -100%
Hornets vs. Celtics Jun 15 $6,555 −$6,555 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs G2 Esports - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $201 −$2,276 -1133%
Miami Open: Luciano Darderi vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $2,344 −$2,344 -100%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - Roman Imperium Cu Jun 15 $74 −$1,878 -2537%
Australian Open Women's: Laura Siegemund vs Liudmila Samsonova Jun 15 $1,510 −$1,510 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FURIA (BO5) Jun 15 $5,364 −$6,744 -126%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks Jun 15 $532 −$2,125 -400%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Punjab Kings Jun 15 $305 −$305 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Monte (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Jun 15 $2,577 −$2,577 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Rizvan Kuniev vs. Jailton Almeida (Heavyweight, Main Jun 15 $5,690 −$5,690 -100%
Dubai Tennis Championships: Andrey Rublev vs Tallon Griekspoor Jun 15 $4,200 −$4,200 -100%
76ers vs. Celtics Jun 15 $4,880 −$4,880 -100%
Ole Miss vs. Georgia Jun 15 $3,080 −$3,080 -100%
ODI Series Hong Kong vs Kuwait: Hong Kong, China vs Kuwait Jun 15 $2,870 −$2,870 -100%
Panathinaikos vs. Valencia Jun 15 $0 −$1,563 -1136051%
Australian Open Men's: Brandon Nakashima vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jun 15 $1 −$1,294 -203209%
LoL: KT Rolster vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 15 $0 −$2,333 -2385644%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $19 −$429 -2224%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $700 −$700 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 65¢ $40 8m
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 60¢ $566 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $909 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 61¢ $561 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL 0¢ $0 4h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY 49¢ $1,017 5h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner SELL PARIVISION 12¢ $1 3d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner SELL PARIVISION 12¢ $2 3d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner SELL PARIVISION 12¢ $15 3d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY PARIVISION 51¢ $2,069 3d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FUT Esports 36¢ $9 3d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FUT Esports 36¢ $36 3d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FUT Esports 36¢ $2 3d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FUT Esports 36¢ $100 3d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FUT Esports 36¢ $4 3d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FUT Esports 36¢ $79 3d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FUT Esports 36¢ $3 3d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FUT Esports 36¢ $36 3d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FUT Esports 36¢ $36 3d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FUT Esports 36¢ $100 3d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FUT Esports 36¢ $0 3d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FUT Esports 36¢ $62 3d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FUT Esports 36¢ $1 3d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FUT Esports 36¢ $2 3d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FUT Esports 36¢ $15 3d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FUT Esports 36¢ $2 3d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FUT Esports 36¢ $2 3d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FUT Esports 36¢ $2 3d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FUT Esports 36¢ $180 3d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FUT Esports 36¢ $2 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $705.76 · official $705.76 (match) · 3500 history records