Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T09:05:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7.5
score
D2 0xd27d…fa96 world 70 markets active 7h ago coverage 71d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist
Total PnL +$2,964 (+19%) realized +$3,758 · open −$794
✓ In copytrade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +70% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +54% what you keep after slip
Net edge+54%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate53%30W / 27L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$228per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$1,676now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$67
7 days−$211
14 days+$480
30 days+$3,532
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 75% +$2,882
other 12% −$62
politics 6% +$154
sports 5% −$251
tech 2% +$57
finance 0% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)+54.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -6.6% -15.5% 42% 26% -12.5%
≤30d 45 +88.3% +70.4% 56% 40% +17.3%
≤90d 57 +70.4% +54.2% 53% 37% +15.5%
all 57 +70.4% +54.2% 53% 37% +15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +54.2% 37% +15.5%
10% +39.4% 23% +4.4%
15% +25.9% 21% -5.7%
20% +13.6% 21% -14.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +28% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +70% · $-wt +28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +133% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$170 vs −$57 · ×2.99 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.32 per $1 lost it wins $3.32
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$1,676
Realized+$3,758
Unrealized−$794
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses30 / 27
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions13
Markets (closed)57 / 70
History coverage71d
Avg bet$228
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $500 $451 −$49 (-10%)
Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,200-$4,600 in June? Yes 61¢ 65¢ $200 $213 +$13 (+6%)
Will Gold (GC) settle at $3,800-$4,200 in June? Yes 16¢ 28¢ $100 $174 +$74 (+74%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Yes 11¢ 6¢ $250 $148 −$102 (-41%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 25¢ 18¢ $200 $140 −$60 (-30%)
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30? Yes 13¢ 2¢ $700 $117 −$583 (-83%)
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 30? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $150 $109 −$41 (-27%)
Will 2026 rank as the sixth-hottest year on record or lower? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $100 $89 −$11 (-11%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $50 $58 +$8 (+15%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+4%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $50 $45 −$5 (-10%)
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? No 6¢ 5¢ $50 $41 −$9 (-19%)
Will the US strike 13 countries in 2026? Yes 5¢ 3¢ $70 $40 −$30 (-43%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gold (GC) settle at <$3,800 in June? Jun 16 $31 −$26 -85%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 15 $300 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $103 −$24 -24%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 14 $450 −$42 -9%
Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026? Jun 14 $50 +$4 +8%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $699 −$45 -6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $700 +$83 +12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $1,100 +$78 +7%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $100 +$95 +96%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 14 $400 +$272 +68%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $580 −$97 -17%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 14 $100 −$53 -53%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $850 −$312 -37%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $202 −$199 -98%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $302 +$57 +19%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 12 $150 −$93 -62%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $122 +$194 +158%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 10 $100 −$68 -68%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 09 $100 −$35 -34%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $300 +$37 +12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 08 $150 −$8 -6%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $100 +$23 +23%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $150 +$402 +268%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $130 +$280 +216%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $150 +$20 +13%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $50 −$25 -50%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $45 −$19 -41%
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 06 $203 +$6 +3%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $716 −$281 -39%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $51 +$36 +70%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 04 $200 +$16 +8%
Will Donald Trump announce Todd Blanche as the next United States Atto Jun 04 $16 +$126 +814%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 03 $303 +$42 +14%
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Jun 03 $101 +$2 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 02 $850 +$79 +9%
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec Jun 02 $303 −$45 -15%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian May 31 $41 +$28 +69%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $720 +$84 +12%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $270 −$2 -1%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7? May 25 $200 +$998 +499%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28? May 25 $40 +$501 +1252%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? May 25 $140 +$1,491 +1065%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? May 25 $20 −$12 -61%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 23 $170 −$24 -14%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 21 $50 −$12 -25%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 12 $100 +$7 +7%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? May 12 $110 −$12 -11%
Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Apr 25 $50 −$34 -69%
Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Apr 25 $50 −$38 -76%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 25 $350 +$55 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,200-$4,600 in June? BUY Yes 61¢ $203 7h
Will Gold (GC) settle at <$3,800 in June? SELL Yes 1¢ $5 7h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December? BUY Yes 18¢ $516 7h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 50¢ $300 11h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $78 31h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $200 32h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 25¢ $200 34h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 20¢ $54 35h
Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026? SELL Yes 29¢ $54 35h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? SELL No 95¢ $465 35h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 60¢ $704 35h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 65¢ $300 35h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $231 35h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 77¢ $23 35h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL Yes 86¢ $195 35h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $100 35h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $100 35h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $100 35h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 63¢ $303 35h
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $181 36h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 27¢ $47 36h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY No 82¢ $400 36h
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $200 36h
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 16¢ $126 37h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 31¢ $189 37h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 46¢ $100 38h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 46¢ $100 38h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 57¢ $100 38h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 54¢ $99 38h
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 13¢ $100 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,676.00 · official $1,676.67 (match) · 225 history records