Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:57:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D2 0xd27f…fb74 other 202 markets active 1h ago coverage 187d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$316 (-2%) realized −$305 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate40%48W / 72L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$10,134now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$40
7 days−$2
14 days−$100
30 days−$69
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 43% +$25
crypto 23% −$30
other 20% −$179
world 11% +$17
sports 3% −$153
weather 0% −$24
culture 0% $0
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-30.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +0.7% -8.9% 59% 59% -10.0%
≤30d 29 -17.8% -25.6% 48% 48% -20.3%
≤90d 32 -22.2% -29.6% 47% 44% -23.3%
all 120 -23.4% -30.7% 40% 30% -16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.7% 30% -16.8%
10% -37.3% 24% -24.7%
15% -43.3% 21% -32.0%
20% -48.9% 16% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -51% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$15 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

187d coverage
Net worth$10,134
Realized−$305
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses48 / 72
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions82
Markets (closed)120 / 202
History coverage187d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 82 History 120 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 41¢ 52¢ $2,200 $2,790 +$590 (+27%)
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 85¢ 86¢ $1,660 $1,667 +$8 (+0%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 33¢ 25¢ $2,200 $1,633 −$567 (-26%)
Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election? Yes 87¢ 90¢ $800 $825 +$25 (+3%)
Will Cleitinho Azevedo win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election? Yes 66¢ 64¢ $500 $487 −$13 (-3%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 52¢ 46¢ $320 $288 −$32 (-10%)
Will Kim Kataguiri win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election? No 90¢ 98¢ $200 $217 +$17 (+8%)
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 83¢ 92¢ $150 $166 +$16 (+11%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $120 $121 +$1 (+0%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 59¢ 46¢ $130 $100 −$30 (-23%)
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election? No 93¢ 92¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $90 $90 −$0 (-0%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 81¢ 81¢ $80 $80 +$0 (+0%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 80¢ 82¢ $70 $72 +$2 (+3%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $70 $70 −$0 (-0%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 55¢ 55¢ $70 $70 −$0 (-0%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 85¢ 84¢ $70 $70 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $65 $64 −$1 (-1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $60 $59 −$1 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $51 $51 +$0 (+0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $51 $51 +$0 (+0%)
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $1 $0 -6%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $30 +$17 +55%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $5 +$3 +55%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$15 +76%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 +$6 +55%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 +$6 +60%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 +$8 +39%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$7 +73%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $10 +$3 +32%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$20 +40%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $30 +$14 +48%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$7 -72%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$12 +114%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 15 $60 −$60 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +93%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$11 +55%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $61 −$60 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 12 $5 −$3 -62%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $101 +$31 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on March 20? Mar 25 $10 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on March 20? Mar 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on March 20? Mar 25 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the Bank of Brazil increase the Selic rate after March 2026 meeti Mar 20 $10 −$10 -100%
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil's March 2026 meeting? Mar 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Miami Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Joao Fonseca Mar 20 $20 +$8 +41%
Will the Bank of Brazil increase the Selic rate after April 2026 meeti Mar 18 $5 −$5 -90%
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s April 2026 meeting? Mar 18 $5 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Mar 18 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 15, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Mar 18 $150 −$150 -100%
BNP Paribas Open: Joao Fonseca vs Jannik Sinner Mar 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Mar 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 15, 5PM ET Mar 18 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 15, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Mar 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 15, 6PM ET Mar 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Jets vs. Panthers Mar 18 $80 −$80 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 15, 6PM ET Mar 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Mar 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 15, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Mar 18 $160 −$160 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 15, 4PM ET Mar 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 83¢ $50 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 49¢ $20 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 60¢ $20 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 80¢ $50 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 79¢ $20 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 64¢ $30 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 41¢ $20 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 55¢ $51 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 77¢ $30 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 46¢ $20 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 49¢ $51 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 60¢ $20 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 50¢ $51 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 82¢ $50 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 71¢ $50 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 81¢ $101 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 82¢ $50 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $50 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $30 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $30 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $20 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $203 1h
Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election BUY Yes 87¢ $302 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10,133.54 · official $10,133.65 (match) · 816 history records