Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T14:25:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D2 0xd281…d824 sports 471 markets active 2h ago coverage 71d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$466 (-3%) realized −$466 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate50%238W / 240L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day24.4pace
Fees−$120est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$201
7 days−$156
14 days−$141
30 days−$336
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 51% −$518
sports 48% −$126
other 0% +$1
crypto 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -39.3% -45.1% 59% 0% -17.8%
≤30d 40 -19.4% -27.1% 78% 5% -14.9%
≤90d 478 -0.5% -10.0% 50% 36% -14.9%
all 478 -0.5% -10.0% 50% 36% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.0% 36% -14.9%
10% ← realistic here -18.6% 35% -23.1%
15% -26.5% 34% -30.5%
20% -33.7% 33% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$18 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$466
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses238 / 240
Est. fees paid−$120
Open positions0
Markets (closed)478 / 471
History coverage71d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day24.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 478 Trades
no open positions (39 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C or higher on May 17? Jun 20 $29 −$29 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on May 17? Jun 20 $29 −$29 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C or below on May 17? Jun 20 $29 −$29 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 17? Jun 20 $29 −$29 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on May 17? Jun 20 $29 −$29 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 17? Jun 20 $29 −$29 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on May 17? Jun 20 $29 −$29 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 20? Jun 20 $47 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C or below on June 19? Jun 19 $25 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 18? Jun 18 $12 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 18? Jun 18 $425 +$13 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $425 +$13 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $204 +$6 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 15? Jun 15 $28 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 14? Jun 14 $192 +$8 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $146 +$4 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on June 11? Jun 11 $146 +$4 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 10? Jun 11 $145 +$4 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 10? Jun 11 $57 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 8? Jun 08 $148 +$4 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 6? Jun 06 $3 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C or below on June 6? Jun 06 $336 +$10 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 5? Jun 05 $329 +$10 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 4? Jun 05 $61 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 4? Jun 05 $258 +$8 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 3? Jun 04 $265 +$8 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 2? Jun 02 $257 +$8 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 1? Jun 01 $249 +$7 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on May 31? May 31 $165 +$5 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on May 30? May 30 $150 +$4 +3%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 11.5 Total Corners May 29 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on May 28? May 28 $106 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C or higher on May 27? May 27 $103 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on May 26? May 26 $100 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on May 25? May 25 $325 −$325 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on May 24? May 24 $292 +$32 +11%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on May 23? May 23 $162 +$12 +8%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on May 22? May 22 $154 +$6 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on May 21? May 21 $74 +$14 +18%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on May 21? May 21 $39 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on May 17? May 21 $32 +$26 +80%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on May 20? May 20 $78 +$3 +4%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Liquid (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: Team NS vs Nix Team - Game 2 Winner May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner May 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner May 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-18? May 18 $5 $0 +3%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals May 18 $5 −$1 -12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $49 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 20? BUY No 96¢ $47 15h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C or below on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $26 24h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C or below on June 19? BUY No 97¢ $25 27h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $12 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $438 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 18? BUY No 97¢ $151 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 18? BUY No 97¢ $143 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 18? BUY No 97¢ $93 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 18? BUY No 97¢ $38 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 18? BUY No 97¢ $12 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $438 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $425 3d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C or below on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $210 3d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C or below on June 16? BUY No 97¢ $120 4d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C or below on June 16? BUY No 97¢ $33 4d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C or below on June 16? BUY No 97¢ $50 4d
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $28 4d
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $28 5d
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $200 6d
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $32 6d
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $64 6d
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $15 6d
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $81 6d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $3 6d
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or below on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $150 6d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 97¢ $3 7d
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or below on June 13? BUY No 97¢ $146 7d
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on June 11? SELL No 100¢ $150 8d
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on June 11? BUY No 97¢ $146 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2154 history records