Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:50:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
D2 0xd287…eadd crypto 1260 markets active 1h ago coverage 50d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (61 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,439 (-2%) realized −$1,439 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate56%705W / 554L
Whale WR76%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day60.7pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 50d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 56% −$2,080
other 43% −$2,067
sports 1% +$517
tech 0% −$98
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (61 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-20.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +2.3% -7.4% 57% 54% -22.8%
≤30d 672 -16.6% -24.5% 56% 35% -21.2%
≤90d 1259 -12.5% -20.8% 56% 36% -14.3%
all 1259 -12.5% -20.8% 56% 36% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover60.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.8% 36% -14.3%
10% ← realistic here -28.4% 23% -22.5%
15% -35.3% 16% -30.0%
20% -41.7% 12% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 76% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$18 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,439
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses705 / 554
Whale WR (big bets)76%
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1259 / 1260
History coverage50d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day60.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1259 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 298 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $1 +$1 +119%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $42 −$42 -99%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $1,210 −$1,200 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,476 −$36 -2%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 18 $278 −$11 -4%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $263 −$14 -5%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$9 -89%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $363 +$137 +38%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $304 +$213 +70%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,566 −$937 -60%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,746 +$191 +11%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $505 +$220 +44%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$21 +21%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$50 +50%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $912 +$514 +56%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2,006 −$1,089 -54%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,891 +$107 +6%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +57%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +105%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +165%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 11 $7 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 11 $7 −$2 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $6 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$2 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 10 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 81¢ $42 59m
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 72¢ $1,210 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 99¢ $1,252 1h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 45¢ $1 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 94¢ $992 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 60¢ $267 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 46¢ $249 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 74¢ $477 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 85¢ $181 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 40¢ $187 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $278 3h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $263 3h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $503 15h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $303 15h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $304 26h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 34¢ $630 27h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 90¢ $3 28h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 90¢ $44 28h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 90¢ $24 28h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 90¢ $9 28h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 90¢ $9 28h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 90¢ $9 28h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 90¢ $18 28h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 90¢ $7 28h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 90¢ $8 28h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 90¢ $180 28h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 90¢ $23 28h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 90¢ $6 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.27 · official $0.00 (match) · 3276 history records