trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? | Jun 01 | $1 | $0 | +17% |
| Will Alex Smalley win the 2026 PGA Championship? | May 17 | $2 | −$2 | -98% |
| Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 350k and 400k? | May 17 | $1 | −$1 | -95% |
| Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 PGA Championship? | May 17 | $1 | −$1 | -98% |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? | May 10 | $6 | +$4 | +61% |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? | Apr 11 | $2 | +$8 | +400% |
| US forces in Venezuela again by January 31, 2026? | Apr 03 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? | Apr 03 | $11 | −$11 | -100% |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? | Apr 03 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | Apr 03 | $27 | +$3 | +11% |
| US government shutdown Saturday? | Apr 03 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of February? | Feb 06 | $6 | −$4 | -61% |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | Jan 30 | $4 | +$6 | +149% |
| Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31? | Jan 05 | $10 | +$3 | +30% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 4 | -70.8% | -73.5% | 25% | 25% | -78.7% |
| ≤90d | 11 | -19.1% | -26.8% | 36% | 36% | -31.0% |
| all | 14 | -6.6% | -15.5% | 43% | 43% | -20.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -15.5% | 43% | -20.6% |
| 10% | -23.6% | 29% | -28.2% |
| 15% | -31.0% | 21% | -35.1% |
| 20% | -37.7% | 21% | -41.5% |