Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:04:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
D2 0xd289…7dc9 other 81 markets active 2h ago coverage 475d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$43 (+0%) realized +$43 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate50%40W / 40L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$116per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$4
14 days+$12
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 29% +$12
other 29% +$24
sports 24% +$1
politics 16% +$6
crypto 1% $0
tech 1% $0
economics 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)+1.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.6% -10.0% 17% 17% -9.2%
≤30d 14 +1.8% -7.9% 36% 14% -9.0%
≤90d 29 +1.6% -8.1% 38% 10% -9.2%
all 80 +12.4% +1.7% 50% 5% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.7% 5% -9.1%
10% -8.1% 2% -17.8%
15% -16.9% 1% -25.7%
20% -25.1% 1% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +24% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×2.01 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.98 per $1 lost it wins $2.98
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

475d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$43
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses40 / 40
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)80 / 81
History coverage475d
Avg bet$116
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 80 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 23 $148 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 22 $206 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 21 $155 $0 -0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 21 $326 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $15 −$3 -20%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $40 +$7 +17%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 16 $167 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $6 +$2 +32%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $296 +$13 +4%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 13 $130 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $139 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 10 $78 −$3 -4%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $114 −$3 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $157 $0 +0%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $121 −$2 -2%
Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tam Apr 25 $132 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 1040-1079 tweets in April 2026? Apr 24 $242 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 1120-1159 tweets in April 2026? Apr 23 $213 +$13 +6%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun Apr 22 $14 +$2 +17%
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026? Apr 21 $108 −$1 -1%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 17 $14 −$1 -4%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $1,107 +$1 +0%
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? Apr 13 $1,107 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $47 +$1 +2%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $138 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 12 $1,106 $0 +0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $1,043 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $55 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 11 $1,106 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Jul 02 $1 $0 -7%
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jul 01 $23 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in June? Jun 24 $5 $0 +6%
Will George Russell finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Jun 21 $5 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft buy TikTok? Jun 21 $6 $0 -1%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Jun 19 $5 $0 -9%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? Jun 09 $23 $0 -0%
Will Tim Stokely buy TikTok before July? Jun 07 $23 $0 -0%
Will Jennifer Geerlings-Simons be the next president of Suriname after Jun 07 $31 $0 -0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? Jun 06 $23 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 05 $22 +$1 +4%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jun 03 $8 $0 +0%
Will the candidate from the Democratic Party (DPK) win the South Korea Jun 02 $15 $0 +1%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 125–149 times May 23–30? Jun 01 $17 $0 +3%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? Jun 01 $13 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? May 30 $20 +$1 +6%
Will XRP reach $3.50 in May? May 26 $19 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be greater than $190 on May 23? May 25 $19 $0 -1%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2400 on May 22 at 5 PM ET? May 25 $21 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on June 30? May 24 $19 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $148 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $148 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 46¢ $34 9h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 46¢ $34 10h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $110 36h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $45 36h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $155 38h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $7 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $148 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $24 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $131 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 75¢ $171 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 75¢ $171 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $66 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $84 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $156 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 48¢ $169 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 48¢ $3 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 48¢ $172 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 20¢ $12 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 25¢ $15 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $47 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 12¢ $23 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 12¢ $18 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $6 7d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $161 7d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $167 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $7 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.64 · official $0.00 (match) · 228 history records