Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:12:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D2 0xd289…c00b crypto 89 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (259 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$360 (-9%) realized −$354 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate41%36W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day258.5pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$403
other 3% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (259 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-20.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 88 -11.8% -20.2% 41% 35% -19.8%
≤30d 88 -11.8% -20.2% 41% 35% -19.8%
≤90d 88 -11.8% -20.2% 41% 35% -19.8%
all 88 -11.8% -20.2% 41% 35% -19.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover258.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.2% 35% -19.8%
10% ← realistic here -27.9% 33% -27.5%
15% -34.8% 26% -34.5%
20% -41.2% 20% -40.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -35% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$23 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$354
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses36 / 52
Open positions1
Markets (closed)88 / 89
History coverage1d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day258.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 88 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Up 56¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 48 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 17 $63 +$87 +137%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $100 +$13 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $184 −$42 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 17 $40 −$4 -10%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +90%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +72%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -96%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$15 -95%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $38 +$39 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 17 $95 +$23 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 17 $101 +$29 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $123 +$12 +10%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $59 +$16 +27%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $82 +$128 +156%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $52 −$52 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$5 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $70 −$10 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $62 −$13 -20%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $29 −$28 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $47 +$18 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 17 $55 +$20 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $270 +$26 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $67 +$42 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $17 −$3 -18%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$5 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $22 +$6 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$2 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$11 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$20 -96%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -96%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 17 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $34 −$34 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 17 $17 −$16 -96%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $27 +$23 +85%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 17 $22 −$21 -96%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $6 2m
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 22m
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $22 22m
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $11 22m
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $16 22m
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 22m
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 22m
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $6 22m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Up 58¢ $113 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.05 · official $0.05 (match) · 352 history records