Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:36:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D2 0xd290…4ed4 sports 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$164 (-9%) realized −$158 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%7W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$38est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$174now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$94
7 days+$151
14 days−$200
30 days−$200
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$196
other 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +28.7% +16.4% 22% 22% +6.1%
≤30d 35 +4.2% -5.7% 20% 20% -20.5%
≤90d 35 +4.2% -5.7% 20% 20% -20.5%
all 35 +4.2% -5.7% 20% 20% -20.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.7% 20% -20.5%
10% -14.8% 20% -28.1%
15% -23.0% 20% -35.1%
20% -30.5% 20% -41.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -37% → late +44% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$163 vs −$48 · ×3.4 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$174
Realized−$158
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses7 / 28
Est. fees paid−$38
Open positions6
Markets (closed)35 / 41
History coverage12d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-2%)
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-4%)
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $31 +$184 +596%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 23 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 23 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 22 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 22 $31 −$30 -98%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 22 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $31 +$100 +325%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $31 +$119 +388%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 21 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $31 +$269 +874%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 19 $61 −$60 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 19 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $61 −$60 -98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $61 −$60 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $61 +$169 +276%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $61 −$60 -98%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $61 −$60 -98%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $61 +$146 +238%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $61 −$60 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $61 −$60 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $61 +$153 +250%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 14 $61 −$60 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $61 −$60 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 12 $303 −$300 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $31 1h
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $31 1h
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $31 1h
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $31 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $31 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $31 1h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $31 23h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $31 23h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $31 23h
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $31 23h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $31 2d
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $31 2d
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $31 2d
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $31 2d
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $31 2d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $31 2d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $31 2d
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $31 2d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $31 3d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $31 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $31 3d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $61 5d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $31 5d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $61 5d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $61 5d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $61 6d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $31 6d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $61 6d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $61 6d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $173.95 · official $173.95 (match) · 48 history records