Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:57:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D2 0xd291…c2be other 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 282d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$5 (+0%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate35%14W / 26L
Drawdown69%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$3
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% −$1
other 38% +$2
politics 9% −$8
sports 3% +$12
tech 3% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -1.1% -10.5% 29% 0% -10.5%
≤30d 14 -0.2% -9.7% 36% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 15 -1.6% -10.9% 33% 0% -10.9%
all 40 +2.1% -7.6% 35% 8% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.6% 8% -9.2%
10% -16.4% 8% -17.9%
15% -24.5% 2% -25.8%
20% -31.9% 2% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

282d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses14 / 26
Open positions1
Markets (closed)40 / 41
History coverage282d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown69%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 83¢ 82¢ $42 $42 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 16 $43 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $36 $0 -1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $35 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $46 −$1 -3%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $44 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 12 $44 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 11 $46 −$2 -4%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $46 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $76 +$2 +3%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $46 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $33 −$1 -3%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 08 $25 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $13 $0 +3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $39 +$1 +2%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 23 $40 −$8 -21%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 19 $8 $0 -5%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Dec 15 $9 +$2 +24%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 26 $54 $0 -0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $10 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 26 $6 −$1 -10%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $8 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $9 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $9 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 24 $12 $0 +0%
Clippers vs. Hornets Nov 24 $6 +$4 +70%
Patriots vs. Bengals Nov 24 $26 +$8 +30%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 21 $27 $0 +0%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Nov 21 $12 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 21 $13 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 20 $65 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-11-22? Nov 20 $67 $0 +0%
Will Brighton win on 2025-11-22? Nov 20 $25 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $58 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Elizabeth Holmes in 2025? Nov 18 $34 +$1 +3%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31? Oct 24 $34 $0 -1%
Will the next Dutch government be PVV + VVD + CDA? Oct 23 $34 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 National League Championship? Oct 05 $34 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE? Sep 08 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Sep 08 $34 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $42 1h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $4 35h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $19 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $16 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $36 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $36 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $35 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $39 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $40 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $6 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $6 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $39 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $43 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 95¢ $44 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $44 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $4 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $2 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $12 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $3 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $24 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $44 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 73¢ $44 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 76¢ $46 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 76¢ $46 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 76¢ $46 7d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $41 7d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $41 8d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 67¢ $46 8d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 67¢ $46 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 34¢ $28 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.07 · official $42.59 (match) · 298 history records