Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:52:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
D2 0xd293…dbb0 other 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 98d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$4 (-1%) realized +$5 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip
Net edge+7%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown52%max
Avg bet$74per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit17%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 98d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% +$86
sports 34% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +45.5% +31.7% 100% 100% +31.7%
≤30d 1 +45.5% +31.7% 100% 100% +31.7%
≤90d 3 -51.5% -56.1% 33% 33% +5.3%
all 4 +18.1% +6.8% 50% 50% +22.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.8% 50% +22.0%
10% -3.4% 50% +10.3%
15% -12.7% 50% -0.3%
20% -21.3% 25% -10.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$72 vs −$25 · ×2.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.91 per $1 lost it wins $2.91
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized+$5
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)4 / 6
History coverage98d
Avg bet$74
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 7¢ $20 $12 −$9 (-43%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $199 +$91 +46%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-20? Apr 29 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Venezuela win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? Mar 18 $24 +$54 +227%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: France (-1.5) AND France to score first vs. Iraq? BUY 80¢ $151 42m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $290 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $199 4h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 5d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? BUY Yes 12¢ $26 54d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-20? BUY Yes 43¢ $25 93d
Will Venezuela win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? SELL Yes 68¢ $78 96d
Will Venezuela win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? BUY Yes 21¢ $24 98d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.51 · official $161.51 · 13 history records