Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T08:11:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D2
0xd297…2919
weather · 357 markets active 0h ago
3.0score
+$364 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$307 · open +$12
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$1,518
Realized+$307
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses221 / 118
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$243
Open positions19
Markets (closed)339 / 357
Avg bet$177
Trades / day46.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%
Chart Positions 19 History 339 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days+$122
14 days+$827
30 days+$802
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 12? No 98¢ 100¢ $261 $265 +$4 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on June 12? No 91¢ 96¢ $227 $239 +$12 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 12? No 89¢ 90¢ $229 $229 +$0 (+0%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Yes 52¢ 54¢ $129 $134 +$5 (+4%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Yes 56¢ 70¢ $98 $123 +$26 (+26%)
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? No 50¢ 65¢ $70 $91 +$21 (+31%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Yes 71¢ 81¢ $64 $74 +$10 (+15%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? No 83¢ 47¢ $109 $62 −$47 (-43%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? No 84¢ 94¢ $52 $59 +$6 (+12%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 45¢ 36¢ $68 $55 −$13 (-19%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 60¢ 70¢ $45 $53 +$7 (+17%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? No 88¢ 90¢ $35 $36 +$1 (+2%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? No 79¢ 78¢ $32 $31 −$0 (-1%)
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? No 81¢ 45¢ $32 $18 −$14 (-44%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-2%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-1%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 49¢ 34¢ $16 $11 −$5 (-32%)
Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026? Yes 24¢ 22¢ $7 $7 −$1 (-10%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Yes 60¢ 74¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+24%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C or below on May 20? Yes 42¢ 0¢ $309 $0 −$309 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 10? Down 48¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? No 69¢ 0¢ $480 $0 −$480 (-100%)
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 12-18? No 19¢ 0¢ $70 $0 −$70 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 7? No 80¢ 0¢ $28 $0 −$28 (-100%)
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? No 84¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $49 −$15 -30%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 11? Jun 11 $486 +$17 +4%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 11 $59 −$26 -45%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 11 $82 −$7 -8%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 11 $92 +$6 +7%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 11 $11 $0 +3%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 11 $20 −$4 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 11? Jun 11 $121 −$11 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 11? Jun 11 $252 +$14 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 11? Jun 11 $88 +$11 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 10? Jun 10 $91 −$14 -16%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $29 −$17 -60%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on June 10? Jun 10 $395 +$5 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 10? Jun 10 $573 +$26 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 10? Jun 10 $57 +$3 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C or below on June 10? Jun 10 $28 +$2 +7%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $17 $0 +3%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 10 $12 +$1 +10%
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Jun 10 $19 −$5 -24%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on Jun 10 $41 $0 +1%
Worst Cup: Fakers FC vs. Infamous FC Jun 10 $6 +$6 +100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 44°C on June 9? Jun 09 $128 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 9? Jun 09 $131 +$3 +2%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in June? Jun 09 $210 −$78 -37%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 09 $158 −$14 -9%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $82 +$13 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on June 9? Jun 09 $205 +$21 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C or below on June 9? Jun 09 $108 +$12 +12%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $8 +$2 +21%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 08 $42 +$6 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on June 8? Jun 08 $321 +$8 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $62,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $17 +$5 +30%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $61 −$16 -27%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $164 −$38 -23%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 8? Jun 08 $174 +$15 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 8? Jun 08 $117 +$15 +13%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $64 +$12 +18%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $67 +$6 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 8? Jun 08 $54 −$29 -53%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 7? Jun 08 $9 +$1 +12%
Will Solana dip to $60 June 1-7? Jun 07 $12 +$4 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 7? Jun 07 $440 +$9 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 7? Jun 07 $359 −$37 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 7? Jun 07 $199 +$17 +9%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $28 −$28 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 7? Jun 07 $163 +$29 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 7? Jun 07 $46 +$3 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 7? Jun 07 $86 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 7? Jun 07 $191 +$2 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 27% −$795
weather 23% +$424
world 20% +$158
crypto 13% +$251
other 9% +$433
finance 7% +$47
politics 1% −$221
tech 0% +$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 12? SELL No 89¢ $23 3m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 12? SELL No 89¢ $7 5m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 88¢ $35 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 79¢ $32 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on June 12? BUY No 91¢ $46 1h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 32¢ $6 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? BUY Yes 58¢ $12 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on June 12? BUY No 93¢ $60 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $14 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on June 12? BUY No 90¢ $123 3h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 12? BUY No 88¢ $88 10h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 86¢ $28 12h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 56¢ $28 13h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 51¢ $67 13h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $88 13h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 49¢ $43 13h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 48¢ $47 13h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 59¢ $4 13h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? SELL No 66¢ $13 13h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL No 75¢ $72 13h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL No 72¢ $3 13h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 12? BUY No 98¢ $9 13h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 70¢ $31 13h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 44¢ $69 13h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 44¢ $8 13h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 60¢ $20 14h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 14h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 61¢ $3 14h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 61¢ $3 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 +0.1% -9.5% 72% 31% -8.2%
≤30d 185 -0.9% -10.4% 68% 36% -6.9%
≤90d 339 +0.6% -8.9% 65% 39% -9.0%
all 339 +0.6% -8.9% 65% 39% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover46.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.9% 39% -9.0%
10% ← realistic here -17.7% 19% -17.7%
15% -25.6% 11% -25.6%
20% -32.9% 5% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,517.73 · official $1,517.73 (match) · 3500 history records