Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:26:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D2 0xd29b…96ad sports 81 markets active 2h ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,581 (+3%) realized +$1,572 · open +$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate71%57W / 23L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$698per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$478est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$580now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,913
7 days−$1,954
14 days+$1,020
30 days+$519
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$792
other 0% −$264
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -26.9% -33.9% 53% 47% -28.4%
≤30d 80 +0.4% -9.2% 71% 56% -8.7%
≤90d 80 +0.4% -9.2% 71% 56% -8.7%
all 80 +0.4% -9.2% 71% 56% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 56% -8.7%
10% -17.9% 44% -17.4%
15% -25.8% 31% -25.4%
20% -33.1% 16% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$1,000) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$255 vs −$609 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$580
Realized+$1,572
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses57 / 23
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$478
Open positions1
Markets (closed)80 / 81
History coverage28d
Avg bet$698
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 80 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Over 54¢ 55¢ $571 $580 +$9 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $351 −$346 -98%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 21 $283 −$278 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $557 +$443 +79%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 21 $746 +$139 +19%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 21 $909 −$900 -99%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $1,005 +$193 +19%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $908 −$900 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $269 −$264 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $507 +$386 +76%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner Jun 19 $225 +$58 +26%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $906 +$261 +29%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $706 +$283 +40%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 18 $801 +$35 +4%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne Jun 18 $405 −$400 -99%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 18 $409 −$400 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $325 −$321 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $112 +$56 +50%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $304 +$213 +70%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $1,007 +$277 +28%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $908 +$342 +38%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $297 +$142 +48%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $306 −$300 -98%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $907 +$334 +37%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $907 +$374 +41%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $796 +$58 +7%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $945 +$125 +13%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $1 +$1 +109%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $834 −$725 -87%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $333 +$21 +6%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $504 +$163 +32%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $1,005 +$171 +17%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $1,003 +$120 +12%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $673 +$494 +73%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $407 −$400 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $986 +$893 +90%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $709 +$75 +10%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $285 −$282 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $424 +$414 +98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $258 +$123 +48%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $305 −$60 -20%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $1,009 +$400 +40%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $948 +$408 +43%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $1,235 +$319 +26%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $801 +$40 +5%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $306 −$300 -98%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $808 +$421 +52%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $1,012 −$1,000 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $1,014 +$871 +86%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $920 +$79 +9%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs GAM Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $810 +$190 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $385 1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 53¢ $194 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $351 4h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 44¢ $283 23h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $557 29h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 100¢ $886 30h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 87¢ $654 33h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 67¢ $86 33h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 67¢ $6 33h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 68¢ $909 34h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 100¢ $1,198 34h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 83¢ $1,005 34h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 70¢ $908 36h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 31¢ $269 42h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 56¢ $507 2d
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 79¢ $225 3d
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 77¢ $906 3d
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 99¢ $990 3d
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 70¢ $706 3d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 60¢ $405 4d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY T1 Academy 27¢ $102 4d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY T1 Academy 27¢ $102 4d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY T1 Academy 26¢ $102 4d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY T1 Academy 27¢ $102 4d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 96¢ $801 4d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $9 5d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $316 5d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 66¢ $112 5d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 58¢ $304 7d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY LYON 78¢ $1,007 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $580.04 · official $580.04 (match) · 181 history records