Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:20:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D2 0xd29b…5e3d sports 60 markets active 1d ago coverage 232d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$18 (+3%) realized +$69 · open −$51
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate26%15W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days+$11
14 days+$6
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% +$76
other 22% −$85
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)+4.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 +45.0% +31.2% 27% 24% +2.4%
≤30d 45 +32.1% +19.5% 24% 22% -3.5%
≤90d 47 +26.5% +14.4% 23% 21% -23.0%
all 58 +15.4% +4.4% 26% 22% -0.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.4% 22% -0.9%
10% -5.6% 22% -10.4%
15% -14.7% 22% -19.1%
20% -23.1% 21% -27.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 69% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$4 · ×3.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

232d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized+$69
Unrealized−$51
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses15 / 43
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)58 / 60
History coverage232d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? Yes 28¢ 3¢ $57 $6 −$51 (-89%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 40 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 +$2 +187%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +307%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 +$5 +250%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 +$7 +344%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$16 +1577%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$5 +250%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -79%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -91%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 +$4 +170%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $17 −$1 -6%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $6 +$9 +147%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 +$6 +596%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +4%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$10 +982%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 in June? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
LoL: Gen.G vs G2 Esports - Game 3 Winner Mar 21 $15 −$15 -100%
First Blood in Game 2? Mar 21 $7 −$7 -100%
AFC U23 Final: China vs. Japan Jan 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Nov 11 $50 +$34 +68%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Nov 09 $100 +$127 +127%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 31h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $3 31h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 50¢ $3 31h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 35h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 35h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 35h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 35h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 35h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 35h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 35h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 2d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 2d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 2d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 2d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 2d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 3d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 3d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 3d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $3 3d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 3d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 3d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 3d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 3d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.97 · official $10.97 (match) · 112 history records