trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | -10.5% | -19.0% | 0% | 0% | -9.8% |
| ≤30d | 2 | -10.5% | -19.0% | 0% | 0% | -9.8% |
| ≤90d | 2 | -10.5% | -19.0% | 0% | 0% | -9.8% |
| all | 12 | -10.1% | -18.7% | 17% | 0% | -9.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -18.7% | 0% | -9.7% |
| 10% | -26.5% | 0% | -18.3% |
| 15% | -33.6% | 0% | -26.2% |
| 20% | -40.1% | 0% | -33.5% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | $199 | $199 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | $179 | $178 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Jun 21 | $1 | $0 | -21% |
| Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Jun 21 | $199 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Feb 02 | $82 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Feb 02 | $459 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Washington Capitals win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? | Feb 02 | $15 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jan 26 | $32 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? | Jan 26 | $13 | $0 | -0% |
| Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jan 20 | $454 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Anaheim Ducks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? | Jan 19 | $50 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Polymarket mindshare hit 85%? | Jan 16 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? | Jan 16 | $82 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? | Jan 16 | $417 | −$1 | -0% |