Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:05:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
D2 0xd2a4…dec4 other 35 markets active 2h ago coverage 239d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$3,364 (+12%) realized +$3,371 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate74%25W / 9L
Whale WR89%big bets
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$826per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$70est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$243now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3,083
7 days+$3,339
14 days+$3,339
30 days+$3,339
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% −$74
sports 31% +$3,113
crypto 9% +$192
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -6.5% -15.4% 71% 43% +3.2%
≤30d 14 -6.5% -15.4% 71% 43% +3.2%
≤90d 14 -6.5% -15.4% 71% 43% +3.2%
all 34 -7.2% -16.0% 74% 38% +0.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.0% 38% +0.7%
10% -24.1% 26% -8.9%
15% -31.4% 12% -17.7%
20% -38.1% 3% -25.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 63% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +11% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 89% (≥$1,466) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -11% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$218 vs −$245 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.47 per $1 lost it wins $2.47
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

239d coverage
Net worth$243
Realized+$3,371
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses25 / 9
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Est. fees paid−$70
Open positions1
Markets (closed)34 / 35
History coverage239d
Avg bet$826
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 4.5 Corners Over 58¢ 56¢ $250 $243 −$7 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 7.5 Corners Jun 19 $2,916 +$3,079 +106%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $201 −$201 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $905 +$205 +23%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $815 +$210 +26%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $2,508 +$301 +12%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $66 −$66 -100%
New Zealand leading at halftime? Jun 16 $2,197 +$377 +17%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $2,046 +$152 +7%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3,217 −$1,171 -36%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3,123 +$94 +3%
Exact Score: Sweden 0 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $2,914 +$210 +7%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $156 +$59 +38%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $2,663 +$192 +7%
MH Maccabi Tel Aviv vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 3.5 Jan 29 $235 +$107 +46%
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-01-29? Jan 29 $248 −$13 -5%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-28? Jan 29 $246 +$2 +1%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-01-28? Jan 28 $206 +$39 +19%
Manchester City FC vs. Galatasaray SK: O/U 2.5 Jan 28 $201 +$5 +2%
Zama FDV above $800M one day after launch? Jan 28 $300 +$102 +34%
Fenerbahçe SK vs. Ferencvárosi TC: O/U 2.5 Nov 26 $483 −$483 -100%
Will Manchester United win on 2025-11-08? Nov 11 $14 −$14 -100%
WTA Finals, Final Stage: Aryna Sabalenka vs Amanda Anisimova Nov 07 $13 +$1 +9%
Aston Villa FC vs. MH Maccabi Tel Aviv: O/U 3.5 Nov 07 $11 +$3 +24%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2025-11-05? Nov 06 $10 $0 +3%
Will Club Brugge KV win on 2025-11-05? Nov 05 $7 +$3 +50%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-02? Nov 05 $7 $0 +1%
Will Beşiktaş JK vs. Fenerbahçe SK end in a draw? Nov 02 $7 $0 +5%
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2025-11-02? Nov 02 $64 −$58 -90%
Will FC Augsburg win on 2025-10-31? Oct 31 $60 +$4 +7%
Over $1.4B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Oct 30 $943 +$37 +4%
Over $1.3B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Oct 30 $200 +$45 +22%
Over $1.2B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Oct 29 $1,466 +$217 +15%
Over $10M committed to the ZKLSOL raise on MetaDAO? Oct 29 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Over 58¢ $253 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 7.5 Corners BUY Over 48¢ $2,916 25h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $1,110 26h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 86¢ $201 26h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 81¢ $905 29h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 67¢ $101 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 79¢ $815 2d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY No 91¢ $66 3d
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 BUY Over 89¢ $2,508 3d
New Zealand leading at halftime? BUY No 85¢ $2,197 4d
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 Egypt? SELL No 100¢ $2,198 4d
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 Egypt? BUY No 83¢ $128 4d
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 Egypt? BUY No 94¢ $1,918 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 60¢ $2,046 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 93¢ $3,217 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 97¢ $3,123 4d
Exact Score: Sweden 0 - 1 Tunisia? SELL No 100¢ $3,123 4d
Exact Score: Sweden 0 - 1 Tunisia? BUY No 93¢ $2,914 4d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 72¢ $156 5d
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Japan? SELL No 100¢ $2,855 5d
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Japan? BUY No 93¢ $2,663 5d
MH Maccabi Tel Aviv vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 96¢ $342 141d
MH Maccabi Tel Aviv vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 66¢ $235 141d
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-01-29? SELL Yes 71¢ $235 141d
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-01-29? BUY Yes 75¢ $248 141d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-28? BUY Yes 99¢ $246 142d
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-01-28? SELL Yes 99¢ $78 142d
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-01-28? SELL Yes 97¢ $167 142d
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-01-28? BUY Yes 82¢ $206 142d
Manchester City FC vs. Galatasaray SK: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 81¢ $206 142d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $243.49 · official $243.53 (match) · 88 history records