Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T20:45:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D2
0xd2a7…524d
crypto · 20 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$51 +34%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$41 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$27
Realized+$41
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses5 / 8
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)13 / 20
History coverage1d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day84.0
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit90%
Chart Positions 7 History 13 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$41
7 days+$41
14 days+$41
30 days+$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Over 48¢ 68¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+41%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Over 37¢ 61¢ $4 $7 +$3 (+65%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 25¢ 26¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Over 27¢ 18¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-31%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Yes 29¢ 18¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-36%)
Japan leading at halftime? Yes 22¢ 16¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in First Half Yes 21¢ 8¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-64%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Down 9¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Up 10¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Down 20¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Down 10¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Down 4¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Down 13¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Up 19¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Down 10¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$2 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$6 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$7 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$8 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$5 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $16 +$69 +438%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$9 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 14 $15 −$14 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 82% +$41
sports 14% $0
other 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $2 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $2 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $2 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Up 72¢ $22 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $3 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 58¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $3 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Over 37¢ $4 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 48¢ $5 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 27¢ $5 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY Yes 29¢ $3 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 21¢ $3 1h
Japan leading at halftime? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 86¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +30.9% +18.5% 38% 38% +30.9%
≤30d 13 +30.9% +18.5% 38% 38% +30.9%
≤90d 13 +30.9% +18.5% 38% 38% +30.9%
all 13 +30.9% +18.5% 38% 38% +30.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover84.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +18.5% 38% +30.9%
10% ← realistic here +7.1% 38% +18.4%
15% -3.2% 38% +7.0%
20% -12.7% 38% -3.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.64 · official $26.64 (match) · 86 history records