Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:08:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D2 0xd2a7…1fdb crypto 1873 markets active 0h ago coverage 11d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 10d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (191 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$2,602 (+24%) realized +$2,602 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate73%1385W / 521L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day191.0pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 11d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% +$1,613
sports 9% +$165
weather 1% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (191 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1045 -26.9% -33.9% 58% 36% -68.0%
≤30d 1906 -3.3% -12.6% 73% 51% -48.7%
≤90d 1906 -3.3% -12.6% 73% 51% -48.7%
all 1906 -3.3% -12.6% 73% 51% -48.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover191.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.6% 51% -48.7%
10% ← realistic here -20.9% 36% -53.6%
15% -28.6% 26% -58.1%
20% -35.6% 16% -62.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -43% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -43% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +24% → late -31% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$20 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized+$2,602
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses1385 / 521
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1906 / 1873
History coverage11d ⚠
Avg bet$6
Trades / day191.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1906 Trades
no open positions (498 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - May 28, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 17 $88 −$88 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 25, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 17 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 1, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 1, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 3, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $44 −$44 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 27, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 1, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $78 −$78 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 3, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 17 $72 −$72 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 18, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 20, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 17 $49 −$49 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 30, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 20, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 28, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 20, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $99 −$99 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 19, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 17 $66 −$66 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 28, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 23m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 23m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $4 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 58m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $4 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $4 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $4 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.00 · official $15.00 (match) · 3500 history records