Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:00:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D2 0xd2a8…c217 sports 24 markets active 16h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$13 (+4%) realized +$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%9W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% +$59
other 49% −$48
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-1.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +9.0% -1.4% 38% 38% -6.3%
≤30d 24 +9.0% -1.4% 38% 38% -6.3%
≤90d 24 +9.0% -1.4% 38% 38% -6.3%
all 24 +9.0% -1.4% 38% 38% -6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.4% 38% -6.3%
10% -10.8% 38% -15.3%
15% -19.5% 38% -23.5%
20% -27.4% 33% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$12 · ×1.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses9 / 15
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)24 / 24
History coverage6d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 24 Trades
no open positions (15 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$31 +307%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Austria (-2.5) Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$25 +250%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$35 +344%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$25 +250%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $10 +$8 +83%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$11 +55%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$28 +276%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 +$22 +109%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $20 +$8 +42%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 15h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 23h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 23h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 29¢ $10 23h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 2d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 2d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 2d
Spread: Austria (-2.5) BUY Austria 25¢ $10 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 3d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 3d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 3d
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 37¢ $20 3d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 54¢ $10 4d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 4d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 4d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 5d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $30 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $20 6d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $20 6d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $20 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 33 history records