Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T19:56:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D2
0xd2ab…2da7
other · 323 markets active 2h ago
1.5score
+$74 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$114 · open −$40
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$110
Realized+$114
Unrealized−$40
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses118 / 201
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions4
Markets (closed)319 / 323
History coverage70d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day7.7
Drawdown95%
Kalshi-fit48%
Chart Positions 4 History 319 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$36
7 days−$23
14 days+$6
30 days−$605
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Yes 47¢ 46¢ $60 $59 −$1 (-1%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Yes 40¢ 22¢ $50 $28 −$22 (-44%)
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 3 Switzerland? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $20 $12 −$8 (-39%)
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 2 Switzerland? Yes 10¢ 5¢ $20 $10 −$10 (-50%)
Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC: Both Teams to Score Yes 35¢ 0¢ $39 $0 −$39 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-17? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-05-17? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Exact Score: ACF Fiorentina 2 - 3 Atalanta BC? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Atalanta BC vs. Bologna FC 1909: Both Teams to Score Yes 59¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Greece vs. Italy: Both Teams to Score Yes 55¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Will 1. FC Köln win on 2026-05-16? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Northern Ireland? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Nigeria? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Northern Ireland? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Nigeria? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Finland win on 2026-06-05? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Girona FC win on 2026-05-01? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-05-24? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. VfL Wolfsburg: Both Teams to Score No 40¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Niger vs. Mauritania: Both Teams to Score Yes 45¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $12 +$45 +365%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -95%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $15 +$31 +200%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 Nigeria? Jun 10 $10 +$43 +422%
England vs. Costa Rica: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $26 −$26 -98%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Costa Rica? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Nigeria? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Nigeria? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Liberia vs. Sierra Leone: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $25 +$31 +123%
Argentina vs. Iceland: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $36 −$35 -98%
Iraq vs. Venezuela: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $25 −$25 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $25 −$25 -98%
Will San Marino win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -95%
Peru vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $25 +$39 +152%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 08 $25 +$33 +129%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Northern Ireland? Jun 08 $9 −$9 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Northern Ireland? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -98%
Niger vs. Mauritania: Both Teams to Score Jun 08 $25 −$25 -98%
Morocco vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 07 $25 +$17 +66%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: Both Teams to Score Jun 07 $25 +$23 +92%
Will Andorra win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $5 −$5 -97%
Greece vs. Italy: Both Teams to Score Jun 07 $25 −$25 -99%
Panama vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 06 $10 +$10 +95%
United States vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score Jun 06 $10 +$6 +60%
Romania vs. Wales: Both Teams to Score Jun 06 $10 +$10 +97%
Will Bermuda win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -97%
Hungary vs. Finland: Both Teams to Score Jun 05 $15 +$15 +99%
Will Finland win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $10 +$10 +96%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 02 $83 −$80 -97%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 02 $83 +$16 +19%
Switzerland vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score May 31 $10 +$22 +213%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? May 30 $62 +$33 +52%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 28 $52 +$45 +86%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 26 $51 +$17 +33%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 26 $26 +$5 +21%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 25 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 25 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 25 $26 −$25 -96%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 24 $26 −$25 -96%
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Everton FC: Both Teams to Score May 24 $25 −$21 -84%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 24 $25 +$11 +42%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 62% +$163
sports 30% −$38
politics 4% −$6
crypto 4% −$25
world 0% −$20
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $61 1h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $42 2h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $15 6h
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 3 Switzerland? BUY Yes 9¢ $21 10h
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 2 Switzerland? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 10h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 40¢ $51 10h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $12 26h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 37h
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 37h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 37h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 37h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? SELL Yes 53¢ $46 47h
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 39¢ $20 2d
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 17¢ $15 2d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 Nigeria? SELL Yes 59¢ $28 2d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 Nigeria? SELL Yes 59¢ $6 2d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 Nigeria? SELL Yes 59¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 Nigeria? SELL Yes 59¢ $10 2d
England vs. Costa Rica: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 37¢ $26 3d
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Costa Rica? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Nigeria? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Nigeria? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 Nigeria? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 3d
Liberia vs. Sierra Leone: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $57 3d
Argentina vs. Iceland: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $36 4d
Iraq vs. Venezuela: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $25 4d
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $25 4d
Will San Marino win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 4d
Liberia vs. Sierra Leone: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $25 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-18.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -16.1% -24.1% 29% 29% -14.1%
≤30d 97 -20.6% -28.2% 33% 33% -32.2%
≤90d 319 -9.6% -18.3% 37% 36% -7.4%
all 319 -9.6% -18.3% 37% 36% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover7.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.3% 36% -7.4%
10% -26.1% 34% -16.3%
15% -33.2% 32% -24.4%
20% -39.8% 29% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $109.71 · official $109.71 (match) · 672 history records