Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T00:33:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D2 0xd2ac…dc58 sports 22 markets active 2h ago coverage 108d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$526 (+5%) realized +$526 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate91%20W / 2L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$521per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$488
30 days+$489
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 48% +$117
other 33% +$397
crypto 7% +$1
world 5% −$1
politics 5% +$1
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 9 +8.5% -1.9% 78% 22% -0.5%
≤90d 19 +4.2% -5.8% 89% 11% -4.9%
all 22 +3.7% -6.2% 91% 9% -5.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.2% 9% -5.5%
10% -15.2% 5% -14.5%
15% -23.4% 5% -22.8%
20% -30.9% 5% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 72% · top 2 92% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$563) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$6 · ×4.49 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×44.86 per $1 lost it wins $44.86
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$526
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses20 / 2
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)22 / 22
History coverage108d
Avg bet$521
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 22 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $701 +$1 +0%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $700 +$1 +0%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $668 +$381 +57%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $564 +$104 +18%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $576 −$11 -2%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $560 +$13 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 15 $563 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell advance from the 2026 California Governor primary e Jun 11 $236 $0 +0%
Will Yuri Fulmer win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Columbia l Jun 11 $318 $0 +0%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 18 $555 +$4 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 8? May 09 $520 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the second-best Coding AI model at the end of April 2026 May 01 $257 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in April? May 01 $300 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of April 20 above $8.00? Apr 25 $556 +$1 +0%
Wizards vs. Cavaliers Apr 13 $556 +$1 +0%
Suns vs. Lakers Apr 11 $555 +$1 +0%
Thunder vs. Lakers Apr 09 $555 +$1 +0%
Timberwolves vs. Pistons Apr 04 $549 +$5 +1%
Will MrBeast hit 125 billion views by March 31? Apr 01 $549 +$1 +0%
Raptors vs. Jazz Mar 24 $548 +$1 +0%
Nuggets vs. Grizzlies Mar 19 $537 +$11 +2%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of March 9 above $130? Mar 14 $537 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 100¢ $701 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 100¢ $700 20h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $668 9d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 84¢ $564 10d
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL T1 Academy 93¢ $68 10d
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL T1 Academy 93¢ $116 10d
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL T1 Academy 93¢ $303 10d
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL T1 Academy 93¢ $77 10d
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 95¢ $576 10d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $560 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL No 100¢ $562 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 100¢ $563 13d
Will Eric Swalwell advance from the 2026 California Governor primary e BUY No 100¢ $236 31d
Will Yuri Fulmer win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Columbia l BUY No 100¢ $318 31d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Spurs 99¢ $555 42d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $520 52d
Will xAI have the second-best Coding AI model at the end of April 2026 BUY No 100¢ $257 61d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $300 61d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of April 20 above $8.00? BUY No 100¢ $556 67d
Wizards vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 100¢ $556 76d
Suns vs. Lakers BUY Lakers 100¢ $555 77d
Thunder vs. Lakers BUY Thunder 100¢ $555 80d
Timberwolves vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 99¢ $549 85d
Will MrBeast hit 125 billion views by March 31? BUY No 100¢ $549 93d
Raptors vs. Jazz BUY Raptors 100¢ $548 95d
Nuggets vs. Grizzlies BUY Grizzlies 98¢ $537 100d
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of March 9 above $130? BUY No 100¢ $537 108d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 49 history records