Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:39:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D2 0xd2ad…a700 sports 236 markets active 1h ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$369 (+6%) realized +$686 · open −$317
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate39%90W / 143L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day16.6pace
Fees−$107est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$530
7 days+$633
14 days+$417
30 days+$260
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$57
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 69 +3.5% -6.3% 38% 38% +9.3%
≤30d 233 -6.8% -15.7% 39% 36% -5.6%
≤90d 233 -6.8% -15.7% 39% 36% -5.6%
all 233 -6.8% -15.7% 39% 36% -5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.7% 36% -5.6%
10% -23.7% 36% -14.6%
15% -31.1% 33% -22.8%
20% -37.8% 27% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$15 · ×1.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$686
Unrealized−$317
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses90 / 143
Est. fees paid−$107
Open positions3
Markets (closed)233 / 236
History coverage28d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day16.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 233 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Learner Tien 64¢ $274 $0 −$274 (-100%)
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Nongshim Esports Academy 38¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Donna Vekic 34¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 111 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Royan: Emilien Demanet vs Carlos Sanchez Jover Jun 17 $102 +$115 +112%
Figueira Da Foz: Barbora Palicova vs Jil Teichmann Jun 17 $113 +$52 +46%
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl Jun 17 $23 −$8 -37%
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres Jun 17 $77 +$51 +67%
Asuncion 2: Samuel Heredia vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 16 $138 +$52 +38%
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Alan Wazny Jun 16 $90 +$43 +48%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $104 +$110 +105%
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 16 $33 +$32 +97%
Game Handicap: Hive (-1.5) vs G-Time (+1.5) Jun 16 $117 −$9 -8%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $61 −$23 -38%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Chin Jun 16 $22 −$21 -98%
ITF Klosters: Nicole Gadient vs Paula Cembranos Jun 16 $32 −$31 -99%
Royan: Carlos Sanchez Jover vs Alejandro Moro Canas Jun 15 $81 +$140 +172%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $61 −$60 -98%
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 15 $39 +$21 +55%
Dublin: Clement Chidekh vs Colton Smith Jun 15 $15 +$20 +134%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $154 +$47 +31%
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $22 −$22 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $31 −$2 -5%
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $86 −$31 -36%
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Raul Brancaccio Jun 15 $75 +$41 +54%
Figueira Da Foz: Sachia Vickery vs Beatriz Haddad Maia Jun 15 $23 −$23 -99%
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 15 $38 −$37 -98%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $121 +$116 +96%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $61 +$61 +101%
Dota 2: summer bear vs Hive - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $9 −$9 -98%
Nottingham 2: Darwin Blanch vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 15 $18 −$2 -11%
Nottingham 2: Luca Nardi vs Remy Bertola Jun 15 $32 +$178 +558%
Nottingham 2: Oliver Tarvet vs Roman Safiullin Jun 15 $93 +$52 +56%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $50 −$11 -22%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $46 −$21 -46%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $14 +$55 +406%
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $41 +$21 +50%
Counter-Strike: Metizport vs Alliance - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $118 +$165 +140%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 14 $30 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $9 −$9 -98%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 14 $18 −$3 -14%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $53 −$7 -12%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar Jun 14 $38 −$37 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $36 −$36 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $18 −$18 -98%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 13 $15 +$20 +134%
Counter-Strike: aimclub vs Noir Verse (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 13 $12 −$12 -98%
Tucuman: Guido Justo vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 13 $8 +$14 +180%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 13 $5 $0 -4%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Viktorija Golubic vs Veronika Erjavec Jun 13 $16 −$16 -98%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P Jun 13 $6 $0 -5%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $7 −$1 -17%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $14 −$1 -6%
Bratislava: Federico Cina vs Taro Daniel Jun 13 $45 −$44 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Learner Tien 65¢ $40 1h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Learner Tien 65¢ $122 1h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Learner Tien 63¢ $115 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 38¢ $31 3h
Figueira Da Foz: Barbora Palicova vs Jil Teichmann SELL Jil Teichmann 100¢ $165 3h
Royan: Emilien Demanet vs Carlos Sanchez Jover BUY Carlos Sanchez Jover 66¢ $64 3h
Royan: Emilien Demanet vs Carlos Sanchez Jover BUY Carlos Sanchez Jover 31¢ $19 4h
Royan: Emilien Demanet vs Carlos Sanchez Jover BUY Carlos Sanchez Jover 31¢ $19 4h
Figueira Da Foz: Barbora Palicova vs Jil Teichmann BUY Jil Teichmann 68¢ $57 6h
Figueira Da Foz: Barbora Palicova vs Jil Teichmann BUY Jil Teichmann 68¢ $57 6h
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl SELL DXA Esports 38¢ $14 6h
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl BUY DXA Esports 29¢ $11 6h
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl BUY DXA Esports 31¢ $12 6h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Donna Vekic 34¢ $14 6h
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres BUY Gonzalo Villanueva 46¢ $22 18h
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres BUY Gonzalo Villanueva 67¢ $54 19h
Asuncion 2: Samuel Heredia vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi BUY Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi 72¢ $138 19h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet SELL Corentin Moutet 100¢ $214 25h
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Alan Wazny BUY Martin Krumich 67¢ $3 26h
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Alan Wazny BUY Martin Krumich 67¢ $87 26h
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro SELL Sho Shimabukuro 100¢ $64 27h
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Sho Shimabukuro 50¢ $33 28h
Game Handicap: Hive (-1.5) vs G-Time (+1.5) SELL G-Time 49¢ $52 29h
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Jakub Mensik 36¢ $23 29h
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino SELL Adrian Mannarino 46¢ $36 29h
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Adrian Mannarino 47¢ $38 29h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Chin BUY Team Refuser 34¢ $22 30h
ITF Klosters: Nicole Gadient vs Paula Cembranos BUY Paula Cembranos 59¢ $32 30h
Game Handicap: Hive (-1.5) vs G-Time (+1.5) SELL G-Time 55¢ $56 32h
Game Handicap: Hive (-1.5) vs G-Time (+1.5) BUY G-Time 55¢ $117 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.27 · official $0.27 (match) · 484 history records