Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:21:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

5.0
score
D2 0xd2b0…cfa1 crypto 157 markets active 0h ago coverage 68d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,083 (+14%) realized +$3,095 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate49%79W / 83L
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$143per market
Trades / day13.2pace
Fees−$167est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$196now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$218
7 days−$228
14 days+$1,573
30 days+$1,154
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 55% +$1,712
sports 35% +$1,022
other 9% +$120
finance 1% −$26
world 0% $0
weather 0% +$4
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -2.2% -11.5% 27% 27% -23.9%
≤30d 42 +13.5% +2.7% 38% 38% +8.3%
≤90d 162 +25.9% +13.9% 49% 45% +1.4%
all 162 +25.9% +13.9% 49% 45% +1.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +13.9% 45% +1.4%
10% +3.0% 43% -8.3%
15% -6.9% 40% -17.2%
20% -16.0% 35% -25.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +43% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$131 vs −$93 · ×1.41 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.38 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$196
Realized+$3,095
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses79 / 83
Est. fees paid−$167
Open positions1
Markets (closed)162 / 157
History coverage68d
Avg bet$143
Trades / day13.2
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 162 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brescia: Anastasiia Sobolieva vs Ane Mintegi Del Olmo Anastasiia Sobolieva 52¢ 49¢ $208 $196 −$12 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 44 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 19 $145 +$123 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 19 $63 +$67 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 19 $51 +$22 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 18 $177 −$164 -92%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-7.5) Jun 18 $128 +$40 +31%
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys Jun 18 $147 +$201 +137%
Parma: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Stefano Travaglia Jun 17 $68 −$67 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $131 −$130 -99%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $24 +$111 +470%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $108 −$105 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Alan Wazny Jun 16 $47 −$47 -100%
Brescia: Mia Ristic vs Deborah Chiesa Jun 16 $137 −$16 -12%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 16 $347 −$229 -66%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 11 $331 −$330 -100%
Libema Open: Jaume Munar vs Martin Damm Jun 09 $254 −$252 -99%
Cattolica: Gianmarco Ferrari vs Sergio Callejon Jun 09 $640 −$630 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 214.5 Jun 09 $355 +$289 +81%
HSBC Championships: Qinwen Zheng vs Jaqueline Cristian Jun 08 $921 +$1,301 +141%
Ilkley: August Holmgren vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaer Jun 08 $499 −$201 -40%
Libema Open: Mia Pohankova vs Clara Tauson Jun 08 $243 −$17 -7%
Libema Open: Marin Cilic vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 08 $288 +$864 +300%
Modena: Xiyu Wang vs Laura Samson Jun 08 $364 +$533 +146%
Bratislava: Vitaliy Sachko vs Yosuke Watanuki Jun 08 $65 −$7 -10%
Libema Open: Magda Linette vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 08 $120 +$250 +208%
Heilbronn: Diego Dedura-Palomero vs Joao Lucas Da Silva Jun 04 $62 −$62 -100%
Centurion 2: Alexander Donski vs Edward Winter Jun 04 $31 +$30 +96%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Seattle Storm Jun 04 $14 +$18 +124%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 Jun 04 $140 −$140 -100%
ITF Tsaghkadzor: Kristina Kroitor vs Sevil Yuldasheva May 29 $72 −$72 -100%
Indiana Fever vs. Golden State Valkyries May 29 $3 +$5 +186%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET May 28 $5 +$2 +48%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 222.5 May 24 $207 −$204 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET May 21 $7 +$3 +42%
Will FC Ryūkyū vs. Gainare Tottori end in a draw? May 17 $92 −$90 -98%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 207.5 May 16 $60 +$42 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET May 15 $143 −$143 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET May 15 $168 −$166 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET May 15 $105 +$180 +171%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET May 14 $157 −$151 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET May 14 $133 +$71 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET May 14 $323 +$136 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brescia: Anastasiia Sobolieva vs Ane Mintegi Del Olmo BUY Anastasiia Sobolieva 52¢ $208 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $66 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $124 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 63¢ $130 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET SELL Down 86¢ $73 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $51 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $3 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $42 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $21 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET SELL Up 48¢ $7 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $21 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $91 28h
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-7.5) SELL Phoenix Mercury 99¢ $0 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $196.00 · official $196.00 (match) · 939 history records