Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T07:16:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D2 0xd2b5…8d20 other 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$24 (-9%) realized −$24 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate67%8W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$5
14 days−$25
30 days−$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 78% −$35
sports 22% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +6.8% -3.3% 73% 64% -6.9%
≤30d 12 -2.1% -11.4% 67% 58% -19.9%
≤90d 12 -2.1% -11.4% 67% 58% -19.9%
all 12 -2.1% -11.4% 67% 58% -19.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 58% -19.9%
10% -19.9% 50% -27.5%
15% -27.6% 42% -34.5%
20% -34.7% 8% -41.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 50% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$19 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized−$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses8 / 4
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)12 / 14
History coverage9d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Over 73¢ 74¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $15 +$4 +29%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$4 +38%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$4 +42%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $15 +$6 +40%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$10 +48%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$15 +152%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $40 +$3 +6%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $20 +$4 +21%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 10 $30 −$30 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 73¢ $20 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $35 2h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 25h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $15 25h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $10 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $15 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $15 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 3d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $20 4d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 82¢ $20 9d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $30 9d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $40 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.94 · official $54.94 (match) · 22 history records