Wallet analysis — Alpha Desk

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$20,243

7 days−$17,352

14 days−$15,797

30 days+$5,712

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	16¢	81¢	$13,310	$68,122	+$54,811 (+412%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	7¢	11¢	$480	$750	+$270 (+56%)
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP?	Yes	28¢	29¢	$471	$492	+$21 (+4%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	1¢	1¢	$400	$476	+$76 (+19%)
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP?	Yes	36¢	3¢	$1,377	$127	−$1,250 (-91%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Thunder vs. Lakers	Jun 11	$998	−$998	-100%
Spurs vs. Knicks	Jun 11	$1,689	−$1,689	-100%
Lakers vs. Rockets	Jun 11	$11,370	−$2,905	-26%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors	Jun 11	$4,050	−$4,050	-100%
Suns vs. Thunder	Jun 11	$1,648	−$1,648	-100%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers	Jun 11	$5,350	−$5,350	-100%
Spurs vs. Thunder	Jun 11	$1,048	−$1,048	-100%
Thunder vs. Suns	Jun 11	$1,881	−$1,881	-100%
Pistons vs. Magic	Jun 11	$1,750	−$1,750	-100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardians	Jun 11	$913	−$913	-100%
Spurs vs. Knicks	Jun 11	$2,740	+$1,989	+73%
Knicks vs. Spurs	Jun 06	$1,819	+$2,891	+159%
Knicks vs. Spurs	Jun 04	$1,091	+$1,554	+142%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers	May 26	$653	+$383	+59%
Thunder vs. Spurs	May 25	$6,323	+$4,333	+68%
Thunder vs. Spurs	May 23	$3,065	+$3,256	+106%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks	May 22	$2,096	+$988	+47%
Spurs vs. Thunder	May 21	$1,470	+$564	+38%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks	May 20	$1,154	+$375	+32%
Spurs vs. Thunder	May 19	$3,710	+$6,461	+174%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons	May 18	$2,942	+$1,253	+43%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers	May 16	$2,732	+$1,159	+42%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons	May 14	$993	+$2,738	+276%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves	May 11	$1,692	+$2,914	+172%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)	May 10	$982	+$3,763	+383%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers	Apr 26	$15,683	+$4,332	+28%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves	Apr 26	$20,031	+$1,508	+8%
Knicks vs. Hawks	Apr 26	$4,783	+$3,943	+82%
Lakers vs. Rockets	Apr 25	$2,101	+$3,464	+165%
Celtics vs. 76ers	Apr 24	$2,216	−$16	-1%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves	Apr 24	$10,000	+$9,680	+97%
Rockets vs. Lakers	Apr 22	$947	+$1,863	+197%
76ers vs. Celtics	Apr 22	$2,308	+$5,757	+249%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets	Apr 21	$1,706	+$3,676	+216%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs	Apr 20	$2,600	+$133	+5%
Magic vs. Pistons	Apr 20	$2,000	+$715	+36%
Seahawks vs. Patriots	Feb 09	$35	+$16	+45%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Feb 07	$480	−$28	-6%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

sports 99% +$101,043

other 1% +$317

Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP?	BUY Yes	28¢	$500	15h
Spurs vs. Knicks	BUY Knicks	55¢	$1,888	32h
Spurs vs. Knicks	BUY Knicks	55¢	$852	32h
Spurs vs. Knicks	BUY Knicks	54¢	$8	3d
Spurs vs. Knicks	BUY Knicks	54¢	$680	3d
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP?	BUY Yes	36¢	$530	4d
Spurs vs. Knicks	BUY Knicks	55¢	$1,001	5d
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP?	BUY Yes	37¢	$929	5d
Knicks vs. Spurs	SELL Knicks	99¢	$4,710	6d
Knicks vs. Spurs	BUY Knicks	33¢	$318	6d
Knicks vs. Spurs	BUY Knicks	35¢	$1,501	7d
Knicks vs. Spurs	SELL Knicks	99¢	$2,645	8d
Knicks vs. Spurs	BUY Knicks	37¢	$1,091	8d
Spurs vs. Thunder	BUY Spurs	38¢	$1,048	16d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers	SELL Knicks	99¢	$1,036	17d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers	BUY Knicks	57¢	$653	17d
Thunder vs. Spurs	SELL Spurs	100¢	$10,656	18d
Thunder vs. Spurs	BUY Spurs	54¢	$6,323	19d
Thunder vs. Spurs	SELL Thunder	100¢	$6,321	20d
Thunder vs. Spurs	BUY Thunder	44¢	$3,065	20d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks	SELL Knicks	100¢	$3,084	21d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks	BUY Knicks	62¢	$15	21d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks	BUY Knicks	62¢	$2,082	21d
Spurs vs. Thunder	SELL Thunder	100¢	$2,034	22d
Spurs vs. Thunder	BUY Thunder	66¢	$1,470	22d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks	SELL Knicks	100¢	$1,529	23d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	BUY Yes	17¢	$532	23d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	BUY Yes	18¢	$115	23d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	BUY Yes	18¢	$358	23d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	BUY Yes	17¢	$2,130	23d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

worth copying (survives realistic slippage)

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +63%

net ROI/market (all)+38.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	12	-57.8%	-61.9%	17%	17%	-54.1%
≤30d	23	+14.6%	+3.6%	57%	57%	-1.1%
≤90d	36	+54.8%	+40.0%	69%	64%	+23.9%
all	38	+52.9%	+38.3%	68%	63%	+23.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

turnover0.8 tr/day

realistic slip~10%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	+38.3%	63%	+23.7%
10% ← realistic here	+25.1%	63%	+11.9%
15%	+13.0%	58%	+1.1%
20%	+1.9%	42%	-8.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.