Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:20:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D2 0xd2b5…0d4c world 46 markets active 1h ago coverage 472d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate33%15W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% −$2
other 23% $0
politics 9% +$1
tech 3% −$1
sports 3% $0
crypto 3% $0
economics 3% $0
weather 2% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 15 -1.7% -11.1% 13% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 17 -1.6% -11.0% 12% 0% -10.2%
all 45 +1.2% -8.4% 33% 2% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 2% -9.9%
10% -17.2% 2% -18.5%
15% -25.2% 2% -26.4%
20% -32.5% 2% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

472d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses15 / 30
Open positions1
Markets (closed)45 / 46
History coverage472d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 25 $27 $0 -0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 25 $26 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 25 $26 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 24 $27 $0 -2%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 23 $27 $0 -1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 23 $27 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 04 $27 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $17 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $57 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 02 $5 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $57 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 31 $27 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 30 $23 −$1 -3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $7 −$1 -20%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 27 $32 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 26 $29 −$1 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 26 $29 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 1,750,000-2,000,000 people? Dec 23 $12 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 25 $8 $0 -2%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2025 Canadian Grand Prix? Jun 14 $9 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 225–249 times June 6–13? Jun 14 $9 $0 +2%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 National League Championship? Jun 12 $9 $0 +0%
Will Ras Baraka win the 2025 Democratic Primary for governor of New Je Jun 12 $9 $0 +1%
Will Pascal Siakam Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 10 $9 $0 +0%
No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting? Jun 10 $9 $0 +0%
US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30? Jun 10 $9 $0 -1%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 07 $9 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 05 $10 $0 -1%
Will Kim Moon-soo win between 25% and 30% of the vote in the South Kor Jun 02 $9 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 02 $10 $0 -2%
Will Ethereum dip to $1400 in May? May 29 $9 $0 +1%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $9 +$1 +6%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 11 $11 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin above $84,000 on April 11? Apr 09 $10 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on April 30? Apr 08 $11 $0 -1%
Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? Apr 06 $1 $0 +10%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 05 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Apr 04 $12 $0 -0%
Mike Huckabee confirmed as ambassador to Israel? Apr 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? Mar 31 $1 +$1 +78%
Will CDU/CSU and SPD form the next German Government? Mar 25 $12 $0 -1%
Arsenal wins the Premier League? Mar 19 $13 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by Friday? Mar 16 $12 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 42-43°F on March 11? Mar 12 $12 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $27 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $27 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $2 7h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $26 11h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $26 15h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 87¢ $26 22h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 87¢ $26 24h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 67¢ $26 44h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 68¢ $27 46h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $26 2d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $3 2d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $24 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $27 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $3 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $24 2d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 79¢ $27 21d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 79¢ $21 22d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 79¢ $6 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 23¢ $17 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 23¢ $17 22d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $27 23d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $27 23d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL No 81¢ $5 23d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY No 81¢ $5 23d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $30 23d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $30 23d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $3 24d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $15 25d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $9 25d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $7 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.94 · official $1.94 (match) · 110 history records