Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:05:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
D2 0xd2b6…ed4e weather 440 markets active 0h ago coverage 12d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 11d only
✗ bot/MM pace (275 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$871 (+1%) realized +$843 · open +$28
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +91% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +47% what you keep after slip
Net edge+47%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate99%395W / 5L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$196per market
Trades / day275.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4,555now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$153
7 days+$67
14 days+$1,342
30 days+$1,342
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$1,654
finance 0% +$17
crypto 0% −$53
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (275 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)+72.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 236 +91.7% +73.5% 98% 36% -9.3%
≤30d 400 +90.9% +72.7% 99% 32% -7.5%
≤90d 400 +90.9% +72.7% 99% 32% -7.5%
all 400 +90.9% +72.7% 99% 32% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover275.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +72.7% 32% -7.5%
10% ← realistic here +56.2% 31% -16.4%
15% +41.1% 29% -24.4%
20% +27.3% 28% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +91% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +82% → late +100% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$61 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×5.38 per $1 lost it wins $5.38
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$4,555
Realized+$843
Unrealized+$28
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses395 / 5
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions43
Markets (closed)400 / 440
History coverage12d ⚠
Avg bet$196
Trades / day275.0
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 43 History 400 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 39°C or higher on June 19? No 97¢ 99¢ $507 $517 +$10 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C on June 19? No 93¢ 93¢ $373 $372 −$1 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 18? No 99¢ 100¢ $337 $339 +$2 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 18? No 99¢ 100¢ $282 $284 +$2 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 18? No 99¢ 100¢ $283 $284 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 18? No 93¢ 99¢ $266 $281 +$15 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C or higher on June 18? No 93¢ 85¢ $265 $242 −$23 (-9%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 18? No 96¢ 100¢ $212 $219 +$7 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 18? No 99¢ 99¢ $218 $219 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 18? No 99¢ 100¢ $216 $217 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 18? No 98¢ 98¢ $216 $215 −$1 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 19? No 95¢ 98¢ $210 $215 +$5 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C or below on June 19? No 99¢ 100¢ $199 $199 +$1 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 19? No 99¢ 100¢ $189 $190 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 18? No 99¢ 100¢ $169 $169 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C or higher on June 19? No 97¢ 100¢ $138 $142 +$4 (+3%)
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 18? No 99¢ 100¢ $136 $136 +$1 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 19? No 99¢ 100¢ $93 $93 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 18? No 98¢ 100¢ $80 $82 +$1 (+2%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 19? No 98¢ 99¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+1%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 19°C on June 18? No 93¢ 99¢ $9 $9 +$1 (+6%)
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 19? No 99¢ 100¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 18? No 99¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 19? No 94¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 132 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 5? Jun 18 $0 $0 +34%
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on May 25? Jun 18 $217 −$217 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C or below on May 2 Jun 18 $31 −$31 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on June 17? Jun 17 $158 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on June 17? Jun 17 $282 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 17? Jun 17 $219 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? Jun 17 $338 +$2 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 17? Jun 17 $218 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $218 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on June 15? Jun 17 $218 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 10? Jun 17 $611 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 14? Jun 17 $283 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on June 12? Jun 17 $283 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 13? Jun 17 $211 +$8 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 14? Jun 17 $218 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 10? Jun 17 $209 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on June 14? Jun 17 $338 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 12? Jun 17 $215 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C or higher on June Jun 17 $218 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $63 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 17? Jun 17 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $283 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $218 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $177 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on June 17? Jun 17 $22 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $283 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on June 18? Jun 17 $25 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 18? Jun 17 $218 +$2 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C or below on June 18? Jun 17 $337 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 17? Jun 17 $157 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 17? Jun 17 $283 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on June 17? Jun 17 $218 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $282 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 17? Jun 17 $222 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C or higher on June 17? Jun 16 $283 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 24°C on June 17? Jun 16 $80 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 17? Jun 16 $191 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 16? Jun 16 $282 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $218 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $395 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on June 16? Jun 16 $191 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 16? Jun 16 $218 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 16? Jun 16 $1,142 +$7 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 88°F or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $556 +$3 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on June 16? Jun 16 $144 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 16? Jun 16 $40 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $159 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in London be 19°C on June 18? BUY No 93¢ $9 0m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $8 0m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $6 1m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 19? BUY No 94¢ $1 28m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $8 31m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C or higher on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $2 35m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $16 35m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $16 35m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $30 36m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $8 36m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $6 36m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $8 37m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C or higher on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $2 37m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C or higher on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $8 37m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C or higher on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $15 37m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $6 37m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C or higher on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $8 39m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C or higher on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $4 51m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C or higher on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $10 51m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C or higher on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $10 51m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C or higher on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $1 51m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $39 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C or below on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $199 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 18? BUY No 93¢ $12 1h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 18? BUY No 93¢ $14 1h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 18? BUY No 93¢ $14 1h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 18? BUY No 93¢ $14 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $20 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,554.64 · official $4,472.54 · 3500 history records