Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T00:31:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D2 0xd2b8…8921 other 41 markets active 2h ago coverage 216d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$651 (+33%) realized +$624 · open +$27
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%9W / 20L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit10%portable
Net worth$466now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$409
7 days+$324
14 days+$356
30 days+$566
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% +$500
sports 16% +$203
crypto 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +5.7% -4.4% 30% 30% +29.5%
≤30d 26 -1.4% -10.8% 31% 31% +36.3%
≤90d 26 -1.4% -10.8% 31% 31% +36.3%
all 29 +1.3% -8.3% 31% 31% +31.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 31% +31.2%
10% -17.1% 28% +18.7%
15% -25.1% 28% +7.2%
20% -32.4% 28% -3.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +51% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +45% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late +21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$102 vs −$12 · ×8.33 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.75 per $1 lost it wins $3.75
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

216d coverage
Net worth$466
Realized+$624
Unrealized+$27
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses9 / 20
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions12
Markets (closed)29 / 41
History coverage216d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit10%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 43¢ 40¢ $108 $100 −$8 (-7%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ $49 $70 +$22 (+45%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $48 $63 +$14 (+29%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $48 $55 +$7 (+15%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $40 $34 −$6 (-16%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 47¢ 48¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $26 $17 −$9 (-33%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $16 +$6 (+60%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $13 +$3 (+30%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $8 −$2 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $100 +$70 +70%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? Jun 20 $5 +$26 +510%
Exact Score: Scotland 2 - 0 Morocco? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 0 Morocco? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 3 Morocco? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Morocco? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 0 Morocco? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $5 +$35 +650%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $233 +$141 +61%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $10 +$2 +22%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $194 +$213 +109%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $42 −$3 -8%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $27 −$26 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $60 −$59 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $25 −$24 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $36 +$64 +180%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -97%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $299 +$210 +70%
Based FDV above $500M one day after launch? Nov 27 $146 +$160 +110%
EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch? Nov 20 $94 $0 -0%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? Nov 18 $144 −$50 -35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $30 1h
Exact Score: Scotland 2 - 0 Morocco? BUY Yes $5 2h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 0 Morocco? BUY Yes $5 2h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 2h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 3 Morocco? BUY Yes $5 2h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Morocco? BUY Yes $5 2h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 2h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 2h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 2h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 0 Morocco? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $100 2h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Australia? SELL Yes $13 3h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 97¢ $191 4h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $111 6h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes $10 17h
Exact Score: United States 0 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes $5 17h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 17h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 17h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 43¢ $102 17h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $121 17h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 22¢ $26 23h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $38 23h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $194 30h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $27 4d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $42 4d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $50 4d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $50 4d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 4d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $466.12 · official $466.12 (match) · 64 history records