trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 20 | +5.7% | -4.4% | 30% | 30% | +29.5% |
| ≤30d | 26 | -1.4% | -10.8% | 31% | 31% | +36.3% |
| ≤90d | 26 | -1.4% | -10.8% | 31% | 31% | +36.3% |
| all | 29 | +1.3% | -8.3% | 31% | 31% | +31.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -8.3% | 31% | +31.2% |
| 10% | -17.1% | 28% | +18.7% |
| 15% | -25.1% | 28% | +7.2% |
| 20% | -32.4% | 28% | -3.3% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will United States win on 2026-06-25? | Yes | 43¢ | 40¢ | $108 | $100 | −$8 (-7%) |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 8¢ | 12¢ | $49 | $70 | +$22 (+45%) |
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 10¢ | 13¢ | $48 | $63 | +$14 (+29%) |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 16¢ | 18¢ | $48 | $55 | +$7 (+15%) |
| Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? | Yes | 58¢ | 57¢ | $50 | $50 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 16¢ | 14¢ | $40 | $34 | −$6 (-16%) |
| Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? | Yes | 47¢ | 48¢ | $30 | $30 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 11¢ | 7¢ | $26 | $17 | −$9 (-33%) |
| Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 2¢ | 3¢ | $10 | $16 | +$6 (+60%) |
| Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 2¢ | 3¢ | $10 | $13 | +$3 (+30%) |
| Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 6¢ | 6¢ | $10 | $10 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 2¢ | 2¢ | $10 | $8 | −$2 (-22%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? | Jun 20 | $100 | +$70 | +70% |
| Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? | Jun 20 | $5 | +$26 | +510% |
| Exact Score: Scotland 2 - 0 Morocco? | Jun 19 | $5 | −$5 | -97% |
| Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 0 Morocco? | Jun 19 | $5 | −$5 | -97% |
| Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? | Jun 19 | $5 | −$5 | -97% |
| Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 3 Morocco? | Jun 19 | $5 | −$5 | -97% |
| Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Morocco? | Jun 19 | $5 | −$5 | -97% |
| Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? | Jun 19 | $5 | −$5 | -98% |
| Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Morocco? | Jun 19 | $3 | −$3 | -98% |
| Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 0 Morocco? | Jun 19 | $2 | −$2 | -97% |
| Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? | Jun 19 | $5 | +$35 | +650% |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-19? | Jun 19 | $233 | +$141 | +61% |
| Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Australia? | Jun 19 | $10 | +$2 | +22% |
| Exact Score: United States 0 - 0 Australia? | Jun 19 | $5 | −$5 | -97% |
| Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Australia? | Jun 19 | $10 | −$10 | -98% |
| Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? | Jun 19 | $194 | +$213 | +109% |
| Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? | Jun 19 | $26 | −$25 | -98% |
| Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 19 | $42 | −$3 | -8% |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? | Jun 14 | $27 | −$26 | -98% |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 13 | $60 | −$59 | -99% |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 12 | $25 | −$24 | -98% |
| Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 12 | $36 | +$64 | +180% |
| Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? | Jun 11 | $4 | −$4 | -97% |
| Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 11 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score | Jun 11 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? | May 30 | $299 | +$210 | +70% |
| Based FDV above $500M one day after launch? | Nov 27 | $146 | +$160 | +110% |
| EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch? | Nov 20 | $94 | $0 | -0% |
| Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? | Nov 18 | $144 | −$50 | -35% |