Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T05:09:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D2
0xd2b8…23d2
other · 95 markets active 2h ago
3.5score
+$467 +17%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$473 · open −$6
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$254
Realized+$473
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses27 / 59
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions9
Markets (closed)86 / 95
History coverage134d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown63%
Kalshi-fit57%
Chart Positions 9 History 86 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days+$16
14 days+$16
30 days+$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $125 $124 −$1 (-1%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $39 $38 −$1 (-3%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $29 $28 −$1 (-2%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $23 $23 −$0 (-2%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-3%)
Neymar Jr: 1+ goals Yes 13¢ 11¢ $10 $8 −$1 (-15%)
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-4%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Juventus FC vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 46¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will 125-149 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Will Torino FC win on 2026-05-24? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia: Anytime Goalscorer Yes 35¢ 0¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Up 26¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Exact Score: Club Atlético de Madrid 2 - 2 Arsenal FC? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Arkadiusz Milik: Anytime Goalscorer Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - April 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Down 64¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 24? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jerome Powell by May 31, 2026? No 26¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Barack Obama by April 30, 2026? No 42¢ 0¢ $39 $0 −$39 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $9 +$25 +291%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $84 −$9 -11%
Will Torino FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $12 −$12 -97%
Will Torino FC vs. Juventus FC end in a draw? May 24 $11 +$41 +383%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $25 −$24 -95%
Will Hellas Verona FC win on 2026-05-17? May 16 $8 −$1 -18%
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-05-11? May 11 $15 +$83 +549%
US Lecce vs. Juventus FC: Both Teams to Score May 11 $13 +$12 +90%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? May 07 $4 −$1 -22%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 07 $10 $0 -4%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $32 +$62 +195%
Paris Saint-Germain FC leading at halftime? May 06 $10 +$31 +324%
Will Russia capture Riasne by May 31? May 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia: Anytime Goalscorer May 06 $23 −$23 -98%
Will Donald Trump be the next leader out before 2027? May 06 $2 −$2 -86%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 06 $5 −$1 -13%
Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? May 06 $3 −$2 -70%
Will Netanyahu be pardoned by June 30? May 06 $10 −$5 -49%
Internet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026? May 06 $40 −$18 -44%
Julian Alvarez: Anytime Goalscorer Apr 29 $64 +$119 +188%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $160 −$54 -34%
Exact Score: Club Atlético de Madrid 2 - 2 Arsenal FC? Apr 29 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $82 +$108 +132%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $120 −$118 -98%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026? Apr 25 $16 +$10 +65%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 25 $114 +$44 +39%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026? Apr 25 $100 +$115 +115%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 25 $30 −$30 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026? Apr 25 $21 −$21 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 25 $176 +$96 +54%
DeepSeek V4 released by April 24? Apr 24 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Joe Biden by May 31, 2026? Apr 24 $28 −$17 -60%
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-04-25? Apr 24 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Barack Obama by April 30, 2026? Apr 24 $40 −$39 -98%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Nicolás Maduro by April 30, 2026? Apr 24 $40 −$39 -98%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jerome Powell by May 31, 2026? Apr 24 $10 −$10 -97%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $54 +$99 +184%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 22 $153 +$81 +53%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026? Apr 22 $46 +$164 +357%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 22 $4 +$31 +769%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $33 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 24? Apr 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Apr 18 $51 $0 -0%
Will 70-79 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-April 1 Apr 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Will 125-149 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April Apr 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April Apr 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Juventus FC vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Apr 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Arkadiusz Milik: Anytime Goalscorer Apr 18 $1 −$1 -97%
AS Roma vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 2.5 Apr 18 $20 −$20 -98%
FC Internazionale Milano vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 2.5 Apr 18 $18 +$35 +197%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 46% +$183
world 29% +$498
sports 14% −$30
politics 6% −$101
crypto 3% −$24
tech 1% −$30
finance 1% −$19
economics 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $30 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 1h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 1h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 1h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $34 1h
Neymar Jr: 1+ goals BUY Yes 13¢ $10 2h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 16¢ $9 2h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $40 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $24 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $127 2h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 25¢ $9 2h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $43 10h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $50 14d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 9¢ $32 15d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $33 18d
Will Torino FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 10¢ $12 19d
Will Torino FC vs. Juventus FC end in a draw? SELL Yes 70¢ $52 19d
Will Torino FC vs. Juventus FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $11 19d
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $19 27d
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $6 27d
Will Hellas Verona FC win on 2026-05-17? SELL Yes 6¢ $6 27d
Will Hellas Verona FC win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 7¢ $8 32d
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-05-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $98 32d
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-05-11? BUY Yes 15¢ $15 32d
US Lecce vs. Juventus FC: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $13 36d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $3 36d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 42¢ $10 36d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? SELL Yes 70¢ $94 37d
Paris Saint-Germain FC leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $41 37d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 37d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-4.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +140.1% +117.3% 50% 50% +6.6%
≤30d 6 +74.2% +57.6% 33% 33% +3.1%
≤90d 70 +4.5% -5.4% 31% 27% +12.4%
all 86 +5.8% -4.3% 31% 28% +7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.3% 28% +7.5%
10% -13.5% 28% -2.8%
15% -21.8% 28% -12.2%
20% -29.5% 26% -20.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $253.51 · official $253.32 (match) · 222 history records