Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:15:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D2 0xd2b8…6894 sports 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 572d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$53 (+7%) realized +$53 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate8%2W / 22L
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 48% +$54
other 44% $0
politics 7% $0
world 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 24 -1.6% -11.0% 8% 4% -3.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 4% -3.1%
10% -19.5% 4% -12.3%
15% -27.3% 4% -20.8%
20% -34.4% 4% -28.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$0 · ×656.37 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×119.34 per $1 lost it wins $119.34
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

572d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$53
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses2 / 22
Open positions0
Markets (closed)24 / 24
History coverage572d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 24 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $9 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $8 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $10 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $18 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 29 $7 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 20 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 14 $8 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 10 $16 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Browns win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 23 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Browns win the AFC Championship? Aug 24 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Twins win the 2025 World Series? Jul 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will Red Star Belgrade win the UEFA Champions League? Jun 15 $0 $0 +0%
Will the Saints win Super Bowl 2025? May 16 $290 $0 -0%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 16 $0 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60k in May? May 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 18 $1 $0 +0%
Brentford wins the Premier League? Apr 18 $0 $0 -20%
Blues vs. Oilers Apr 10 $65 +$54 +82%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Feb 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will another team win the Serie A? Jan 10 $1 $0 -1%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Dec 26 $0 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 12 $0 $0 +0%
West Ham United wins the Premier League? Dec 02 $0 $0 +0%
Nottingham Forest wins the Premier League? Nov 20 $288 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $9 1h
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $9 1h
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $8 23d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $8 23d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $10 60d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $10 60d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $9 61d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $9 61d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $7 78d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $7 82d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $9 94d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $9 121d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $9 145d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $9 145d
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 100¢ $8 183d
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 100¢ $8 183d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 99¢ $8 217d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 100¢ $8 217d
Will the Cleveland Browns win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 99¢ $9 235d
Will the Cleveland Browns win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 99¢ $9 235d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 99¢ $7 267d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 99¢ $7 267d
Will the Browns win the AFC Championship? SELL Yes $1 294d
Will the Browns win the AFC Championship? SELL Yes $0 294d
Will the Browns win the AFC Championship? BUY Yes $1 294d
Will the Minnesota Twins win the 2025 World Series? SELL Yes $0 333d
Will the Minnesota Twins win the 2025 World Series? SELL Yes $0 333d
Will the Minnesota Twins win the 2025 World Series? SELL Yes $1 333d
Will the Minnesota Twins win the 2025 World Series? BUY Yes $1 333d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes $1 367d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 77 history records