Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T12:24:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D2
0xd2ba…b283
sports · 329 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$7,833 -6%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$3,457 · open −$9
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$351
Realized−$3,457
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses134 / 162
Whale WR (big bets)31%
Est. fees paid−$1,433
Open positions38
Markets (closed)296 / 329
History coverage94d
Avg bet$418
Trades / day33.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%
Chart Positions 38 History 296 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$107
7 days−$100
14 days−$100
30 days−$1,851
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 69¢ 66¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-4%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 88¢ 90¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+3%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 92¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Over 94¢ 94¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 86¢ 84¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 17¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+7%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Yes 79¢ 82¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 91¢ 93¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 69¢ 70¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 83¢ 83¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 95¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 Over 99¢ 99¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Felix Protocol FDV above $1B one day after launch? No 99¢ 96¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 91¢ 88¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Felix Protocol FDV above $500M one day after launch? No 98¢ 93¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 50¢ 48¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Felix Protocol FDV above $800M one day after launch? No 98¢ 93¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-20%)
Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 3¢ 3¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Germany advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 3¢ 3¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Jun 14 $5 −$21 -414%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by March 31? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Pope Leo XIV be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA (+1.5) Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Dplus KIA - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$9 +44%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $14 +$6 +48%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $9 +$1 +13%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $24 in May? Jun 01 $100 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $38 in May? Jun 01 $10 $0 +1%
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $320 in May? May 30 $100 +$9 +9%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,600 and $2,700 on April 17? May 28 $10 $0 +0%
Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026? May 27 $602 −$309 -51%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 25? May 25 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on May 25? May 25 $4 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 25? May 25 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on May 25? May 25 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 25? May 25 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 25? May 25 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on May 25? May 25 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on May 25? May 25 $20 $0 +1%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on May 25? May 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 25? May 25 $19 +$1 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 25? May 25 $10 $0 +2%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on May 25? May 25 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 25? May 25 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 25? May 25 $110 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 25? May 25 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on May 25? May 25 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 23? May 23 $10 +$1 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 23? May 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 23? May 23 $10 +$1 +6%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 23? May 23 $20 −$10 -50%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 23? May 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 23? May 23 $5 $0 +2%
Will FC Nantes vs. Toulouse FC end in a draw? May 23 $7,670 −$619 -8%
Will Toulouse FC win on 2026-05-17? May 22 $4,025 −$467 -12%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Borna Gojo vs Jurij Rodionov May 22 $0 $0 -2%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? May 22 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? May 22 $10 −$10 -99%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 24? May 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026? May 20 $461 −$300 -65%
Bengaluru 3: S D Prajwal Dev vs Ilya Ivashka May 18 $57 −$13 -23%
Bengaluru 3: Ryuki Matsuda vs Yusuke Takahashi May 18 $64 −$1 -2%
Bengaluru 3: Omar Jasika vs Sidharth Rawat May 18 $309 −$14 -5%
LoL: KT Rolster vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualif May 17 $1 $0 -2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? May 10 $20 +$1 +3%
Tulsi Gabbard out by April 30? May 01 $20 +$5 +24%
Will BNB reach $800 in April? May 01 $29 +$1 +3%
Will Solana reach $150 in April? May 01 $59 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 72% −$2,333
finance 11% −$308
culture 7% +$434
other 5% −$504
tech 2% −$504
crypto 2% −$69
politics 0% −$9
world 0% −$56
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Yonhy Lescano win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Alfonso López Chau win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will George Forsyth win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Carlos Espá win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Rafael Belaúnde Llosa win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Marisol Pérez Tello win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Wolfgang Grozo win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Fiorella Molinelli win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 1h
Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 3¢ $2 1h
Will Argentina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C BUY No 4¢ $2 1h
Will Germany advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 3¢ $2 1h
Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 2¢ $2 1h
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 2¢ $1 1h
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 2¢ $1 1h
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 2.5 BUY Over 3¢ $2 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 2¢ $2 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 99¢ $10 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 94¢ $20 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $10 4h
Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 40¢ $269 18d
Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $24 18d
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on May 25? BUY No 100¢ $9 20d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 25? BUY Yes 99¢ $9 20d
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on May 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $4 20d
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on May 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 20d
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on May 25? BUY No 100¢ $11 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-20.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -32.6% -39.0% 50% 50% -59.7%
≤30d 44 -17.6% -25.4% 64% 7% -26.3%
≤90d 291 -12.1% -20.4% 45% 4% -12.1%
all 296 -12.0% -20.4% 45% 4% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover33.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.4% 4% -11.5%
10% ← realistic here -28.0% 3% -20.0%
15% -35.0% 3% -27.7%
20% -41.4% 1% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $350.88 · official $350.88 (match) · 3500 history records