Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T12:35:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D2 0xd2bb…6076 other 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 489d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate55%22W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 62% +$1
other 23% +$1
sports 7% −$1
finance 5% −$1
tech 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +3.4% -6.4% 50% 0% -6.5%
≤30d 9 +0.8% -8.8% 56% 0% -8.8%
≤90d 17 +0.4% -9.2% 47% 6% -9.5%
all 40 -1.0% -10.4% 55% 5% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 5% -9.6%
10% -19.0% 2% -18.2%
15% -26.8% 2% -26.1%
20% -34.0% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

489d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses22 / 18
Open positions0
Markets (closed)40 / 40
History coverage489d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 40 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $33 +$2 +7%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $33 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 27 $42 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 26 $83 +$2 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 26 $46 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 25 $56 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 25 $43 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $42 −$1 -2%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 24 $43 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $2 $0 +17%
Will Alberta join the US? May 24 $2 $0 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 23 $37 −$4 -12%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 23 $1 $0 -7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 22 $1 $0 -3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 21 $51 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 21 $46 +$1 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 20 $45 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? Dec 10 $2 $0 +4%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on June 30? Dec 10 $7 $0 +3%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Jul 01 $44 $0 +1%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 25 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 24 $2 $0 +1%
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Germany before July? Jun 15 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 14 $6 $0 +0%
Will Larry Ellison buy TikTok before July? Jun 10 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 National League Championship? Jun 08 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 07 $6 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win by between 17-20%? Jun 06 $6 $0 +4%
Will 'Jurassic World: Rebirth' have the best domestic opening weekend Jun 03 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? Jun 02 $1 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? Jun 02 $5 $0 +1%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal majority? May 10 $0 $0 -23%
Will Elon tweet 275–299 times May 2–9? May 09 $44 $0 +1%
UEFA Europa League: Tottenham vs. Bodø/Glimt (To Advance) May 08 $40 +$4 +10%
Will Lyon win the UEFA Europa League? Mar 20 $7 $0 +1%
Houston Christian vs. Texas A&M Commerce Mar 03 $4 +$2 +52%
Central Arkansas vs. Stetson Mar 02 $4 $0 +2%
Washington vs. Wisconsin Mar 02 $8 −$8 -100%
Northwestern vs. Minnesota Feb 25 $4 $0 +0%
Will Florida win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Feb 25 $12 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 47¢ $35 2h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 44¢ $33 5h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $10 10h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $9 10h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $10 10h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $4 10h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $33 13h
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $15 27d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $27 27d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $42 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 70¢ $38 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 70¢ $6 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 66¢ $42 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 69¢ $28 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 69¢ $13 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $19 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $22 28d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $8 28d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $38 28d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $46 28d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $9 28d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $2 28d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $21 28d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $1 29d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $33 29d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 99¢ $28 29d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 99¢ $14 29d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 99¢ $41 29d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $42 29d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $42 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 115 history records