Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:31:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D2 0xd2bc…a4c6 crypto 698 markets active 1h ago coverage 113d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,400 (-3%) realized −$1,400 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate66%462W / 236L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day20.8pace
Fees−$145est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$24
7 days−$275
14 days−$338
30 days−$1,016
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% −$981
crypto 30% −$300
other 4% −$209
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -25.6% -32.7% 38% 38% -22.5%
≤30d 52 -14.2% -22.4% 50% 44% -23.4%
≤90d 152 -5.2% -14.2% 61% 49% -15.2%
all 698 -3.5% -12.7% 66% 43% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.7% 43% -12.8%
10% ← realistic here -21.1% 29% -21.1%
15% -28.7% 19% -28.7%
20% -35.7% 11% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$36 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

113d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,400
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses462 / 236
Est. fees paid−$145
Open positions0
Markets (closed)698 / 698
History coverage113d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day20.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 698 Trades
no open positions (32 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $131 +$68 +52%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $21 −$19 -92%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $51 +$15 +30%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $30 +$14 +46%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $101 +$34 +33%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $111 −$41 -37%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $112 +$20 +18%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $51 −$34 -67%
Spread: Portugal (-3.5) Jun 17 $102 −$94 -92%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 +$23 +221%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $142 +$111 +78%
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -93%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$2 -46%
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 3 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: France 3 - 3 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $102 −$39 -38%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $201 −$200 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 +$49 +48%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $102 +$62 +61%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $202 −$25 -12%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $201 −$200 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $101 +$24 +24%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 06 $302 +$88 +29%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs REKONIX (BO5) - Esports World Cup Southeast Asia Clos Jun 06 $151 −$151 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 205.5 Jun 03 $503 −$500 -99%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX - Game 3 Winner May 31 $262 −$260 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) May 31 $102 +$255 +250%
Dota 2: Aurora vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $70 +$43 +62%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs OG (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $404 −$400 -99%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $221 +$49 +22%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs GLYPH (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $202 −$8 -4%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $253 −$250 -99%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $208 −$205 -98%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $152 +$102 +67%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $71 −$22 -30%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $432 +$98 +23%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $24 −$23 -98%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $81 +$26 +32%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $51 +$9 +17%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Team Yandex (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $555 +$47 +8%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $101 +$53 +52%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs ex-HEROIC (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $264 +$250 +95%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs OG (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $101 +$34 +34%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 - Game 1 Winner May 25 $60 +$4 +7%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 204.5 May 24 $101 +$31 +31%
Valencia CF vs. FC Barcelona: Draw at halftime? May 23 $20 +$5 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 96¢ $200 48m
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 56m
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $30 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 21¢ $66 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 2h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 15¢ $51 2h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 68¢ $30 3h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? SELL Yes 83¢ $135 26h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 26h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 42¢ $70 26h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? SELL Yes 33¢ $104 26h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 31¢ $102 27h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) SELL Portugal 10¢ $17 27h
Spread: Portugal (-3.5) SELL Portugal 2¢ $8 27h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? SELL Yes 29¢ $28 27h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 27¢ $33 27h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $111 27h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 29¢ $51 27h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 28h
Spread: Portugal (-3.5) BUY Portugal 23¢ $102 28h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 28h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 28h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $253 2d
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Senegal? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 2d
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 50¢ $51 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 55¢ $30 2d
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2570 history records